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Posts Tagged Global Warming

Fat Chance of Fat Tax Jim McVeagh Jul 12

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Apparently there is a war on obesity. Trouble is, there does not seemed to be a well-defined enemy in this war. Is it the fast food industry? Perhaps it is the actual fat in foods? Maybe it is the obese person themselves? Or their wicked, neglectful parents? Or perhaps it is carbohydrates, not fats, that make you fat?

All this uncertainty make one thing completely certain. No government in the world is going to make any inroads on tackling the problem, regardless of how much of our money they want to throw at it. Politicians are a simple breed and need a simple target and plan. Unfortunately, the temptation to give politicians a simplistic answer is simply too great for some weight zealots.

Doctors in the UK are demanding action from their government. It seems as though they have settled on the enemy – junk food – and the method – tax. It also seems that their agenda involves the eventual banning of junk food (despite prohibition being a consistent failure). Sadly, I can predict that there will be little agreement amongst them as to what constitutes junk food. Remember, doctors are the people who told you that eggs (probably the most nutritious cheap food on the planet) were an evil collection of cholesterol that would kill you faster than Jack the Ripper. Expect only confusion and knee-jerk politics from this lobby-group.

Presumably this excitement from the UK has sparked a reciprocal shrill cry from anti-obesity groups in this country. Evidently there are a number of “experts” (in what?) who believe that the government is not doing enough.

Amazing. It seems that my weight problem is all Tony Ryall’s fault. And I thought it was something to do with the fact that pizza and beer is my favorite meal and that I get as much exercise as an arthritic sloth…

A health committee inquiry into obesity and type-2 diabetes in 2007 said the obesity epidemic threatened to overwhelm the health system without a concerted government-led response.

Recommendations included restrictions on advertising, improving health promotion and changing food labelling.

The National Government has ruled out a tax on fatty foods, or regulating food advertising.

So, if I understand the above correctly, changing food labeling and taxing fatty foods will make me thinner? Suddenly it is all clear to me now. My obesity has been caused by bad food labeling, not by “death by chocolate” desserts! With another government pamphlet in my hands, I could lose 10 kilos overnight! As long as I never see another KFC advert, I will morph into a svelte waif and live forever!

There has got to be a Tui advert in there somewhere.

Absurdly, all of these things have been tried by other governments, without a lot of success. There is absolutely zero evidence that any of them will work, with the exception of a tax on food. The problem here will be to decide which food to tax. Will you tax KFC (fried chicken) but not Nandos (grilled chicken)? Is the fat in a bag of potato chips any worse than the sugar in tomato sauce? Which is the worst part of my staple diet, pizza or beer?  Are you going to tax things made with butter but not things made with olive oil?

How will you handle the deleterious effect of such a tax on the poor? Obesity is especially prevalent in poorer households for multiple reasons, not the least being that more expensive, healthier food tend to be markedly less satisfying. Poorer families fill up on bread and fatty cuts of meat. A tax on these staples will see such families simply eat less of these – not more of expensive, healthier foods – often to the detriment of their overall nutrition. Attempting to mitigate this through subsidies will, of course, be entirely self-defeating, unless those subsidies are directed at the healthier foods. Unfortunately, this is a recipe for complex, ineffective government intervention (politicians like simple, remember) and unintended, but entirely predictable, consequences.

The central problem behind this conundrum of obesity is that neither fat nor carbohydrates are by any means bad for you. It is overconsumption of fat and carbohydrates that make you fat, not the food itself. As this is an entirely volitional problem, it is not something that a government can solve, even if it wanted to. Only a society as a whole, mainly by peer pressure, makes a difference to a person’s free choice.

While the banning of advertising, control of  labeling and restriction of use have all had some part to play in the reduction of smoking, none of this would have been achieved without a real change in the attitude of the general public towards smoking. However, there is no way that we can produce the same sort of result for obesity. While a smoker can quickly put his cigarettes aside and become “normal” again, there is no way an obese person can temporarily dump 20 kg of fat. We simply cannot produce the level of disapproval required to make inroads on obesity without cruelly discriminatory behaviour. This is clearly not an acceptable proposition.

This is one area that any government would be well advised to step away from. This kind of intrusive social engineering is not well tolerated in New Zealand society. I suspect Tony Ryall understands this. Which is why a Fat Tax is a non-starter.

Besides, the so-called obesity epidemic is not an epidemic at all. Estimates of the cost of obesity to the health system almost entirely fail to account for the fact that the vast majority of obese people have mild to moderate obesity, which has minimal health consequences. It is only when you start to carry more than 50% above your expected weight that you develop serious health consequences. There is not really a lot of evidence that an extra 10 – 15 Kg makes a whole heap of medical difference, particularly if you otherwise exercise and eat well. Thus statements like this…

Experts believed obesity was the biggest health problem facing the nation, with a cost to the health system estimated at $500 million a year.

…are wildly exaggerated for effect. It should be obvious to the “expert” quoted above that accidents are the biggest health problem facing the nation – after all ACC spends three billion a year on them. And it is highly unlikely that obesity alone accounts for $500 million in expenditure. This is almost certainly a composite figure that includes estimated contributions of obesity to heart disease and diabetes. The problem here being we have no idea how many people classified as obese are sufficiently overweight to increase their chances of heart disease and diabetes, so this figure is little more than a guess.

Of course, this wouldn’t be the first time a government has found a non-functional solution to a dubious problem that is constructed almost entirely of conjecture and guesswork, wouldn’t it?

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Positive Energy Jim McVeagh Jan 12

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It was interesting to see two articles on alternative energy sources today, outside of a “series” on such things. One on the approval of the new tidal power generators at Kaipara Harbour and one, a bit more “blue sky” on the realistic possibility of the first practicable fusion generators. Both of these may be realised within a decade, which is good news. Even the most pessimistic “peak oil” proponent thinks the black gold should last twice that long, giving us a reasonable amount of time to roll out those new technologies. As an added bonus, the technologies are both carbon friendly, though I’m not convinced we will be too concerned with that in a decade.

The identifying feature of most “crises” that have been proposed over the past 50 years (and probably longer) is the propensity for linear thinking. Basically the line (literally) goes “the trend goes like this and if we continue it to herewe’re all gonna die“. But given the sheer pace of technological change, it seems strange that we continue to insist that trend lines play out inexorably.

I am aware that this sounds a bit like I am proposing that we ignore those dangerous-looking trends, in the hope that some sort of deus ex machina will pop out of the box and save us. But this is not the case. What I am saying is that we all need a little more long-term perspective on our so-called crises. Instead of running around stirring panic and proposing draconian solutions that threaten to cause more problems than they will solve, we should be prepared to step back and look at the range of technological solutions available to us. All too often in the past, the so-called crises have either not materialised or been overcome by technological advance. There are plenty of potential game-changing technologies like the two at the start of this post, yet the funding for research such as this is a tiny fraction of the sort of money we tend to spend on our very linear solutions to our linear trend problems.

What we probably need is not merely more lateral thinking, but more lateral funding.

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Death on Ice Jim McVeagh Dec 10

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Remember the oft repeated picture of the two polar bears forlornly stuck on an ice floe in the middle of nowhere? Turns out that the photographer who took the picture was more interested in the interesting shape of the ice floe and the picture was taken within a couple of hundred meters of the arctic shore line. The bears were in no danger at all.

Enter Polar bear panic picture Mark II…

Polar Bear

Now this is not as cute are the previous picture. And the headlines…

Polar bears’ fate worsens

New pictures show that polar bears are beginning to cannibalise each other as global warming destroys hunting grounds.

The images, taken in Hudson Bay, Canada, around 321km north of Churchill, Manitoba, show a male polar bear carrying the bloodied head of a polar bear cub it has killed for food.

Polar bears usually subsist on seals, which they hunt from a platform of sea ice.

But the melting of sea ice as a result of rising global temperatures has made it more difficult for polar bears to hunt seals at sea, confining the bears to land.

This has led to malnourishment and starvation as polar bears are unable to build sufficient fat reserves for winter.

Drowning is also more common as bears are forced to swim further out to sea to find food.

That is the entire Herald article but there are many similar ones floating round the international media. The Herald does not carry the picture – I had to go and find it

I was curious when I saw that the Herald had not included a nice, gory picture – normally the staple of newspapers. When I found it, I understood why.

Does this look like a starving bear to you? Yeah, me neither. Makes me want to ask questions like:

QUESTION: Is it normal behaviour for adult bears to kill and eat their young? (I know male lions do this when taking over a pride – it brings the females into heat immediately)

ANSWER: Yes, This is normal behaviour according to the Inuit and the experts. There is no evidence that this is on the increase, only speculation.

QUESTION: Is there any evidence that polar bears are finding it harder to hunt?

ANSWER: No, but they may hunt less at sea and substitute land-based food sources. For instance polar bears have been known to hunt bird eggs. They are perfectly happy to eat carrion. Clearly, they are very adaptable creatures. Even if sea ice completely disappears, the chances are that polar bears will survive. Although they may come into more contact with humans and that is far more likely to render them extinct!

QUESTION: Is there any evidence that polar bears are malnourished?

ANSWER: Well they did find a Mother and her cub starved to death in 2007. A mother. And a cub. Inuits say that the polar bear population in Alaska has grown immensely, which may explain any signs of starvation in the local alaskan population.  I did manage to locate one piece of research that thought the bears in their local study area were “nutritionally stressed” (though they did not report cannibalism!) – but they were unable to say whether this was due to poor seal numbers or deficient sea ice. (Stirling, I, Richardson, E. , Thiemann, G.W. , Derocher, A.E  Unusual predation attempts of polar bears on ringed seals in the Southern Beaufort Sea: Possible significance of changing spring ice conditions Arctic 61: 1; 2008; 14-22).

QUESTION: Is there any evidence that polar bears are drowning?

ANSWER: Again, four polar bears were found drowned in 2004 but nil since – except for a couple of bears that were tranquillized and drowned, proving once again that humans are considerably better at direct means of extinction than all this mucking about with carbon dioxide.

It does appear that, once again, the current meme of dying polar bears needs no facts to bolster it, just hysterical assertions.

I welcome actual evidence to the contrary. I have searched the Auckland University databases with no luck and I find the lack of real evidence appalling, considering the emotive mileage being made out of it by environmentalists.

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If Doctors Used Climate Science… Jim McVeagh Dec 05

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If you have ever wondered what it would be like if professionals from other disciplines started using the peculiar logic used by climate scientists in their research, wonder no more. Tom Naughton on his eponymous blog gives us

If Climate “Researchers” Became Doctors

“Step up on the scale, Mr. Naughton.”

“Sure, Doctor. I’m looking forward to seeing this myself.”

“Let’s see … slide this over a bit … hmm, pretty bad. Your weight is up again.”

“Uh … Doctor, you mind getting your foot off the scale?”

“Oh, okay.”

“So … you want to weigh me again now?”

“Sorry, I’ve already recorded the results. You can step down now.”

“But–”

“Just as I predicted. Man-made body enlarging. I told you to stop consuming so much animal fat.”

“There’s nothing wrong with eating–”

“If this keeps up, you’ll weigh 650 pounds by the year 2030. It’s a looming disaster.”

“Doctor, excuse me, but there’s no way I’m gaining weight. Look at me. I had to buy a smaller belt last month.”

“That’s a temporary anomaly. I’m more interested in the long-term trend.”

“I’ve been shrinking for two years now. I’ve also been eating more animal fat. So it can’t be making me fatter. Your theory doesn’t hold up.”

Click on the coloured title to read it all. It’s priceless.

Hat Tip: Doug Hudson

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Global Warping Jim McVeagh Nov 25

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Now that our illustrious government has finally managed to pass, at great cost to itself and the Maori party, a badly designed Emissions Trading Scheme – that absolutely everyone else hates –  it is time to wonder why anyone bothered. This expensive waste of political capital will achieve precisely nothing for our environment nor prevent Global warming (should it actually exist). It is unlikely to serve any useful purpose at the Copenhagen talks, which are already likely to be derailed by the splendid e-mail debacle that is gradually gathering momentum.

That particular scandal should have provided a good excuse to step away from an ETS, but that opportunity is also now lost.

It may be that Dr Smith simply does not realise the import of those emails, choosing to soothe himself with the bland murmurings of the Global Warmongers at NIWA. Even the right-wing blogs, rightly scandalized by the fudging of facts and the selective nature of data provided, have not appreciated the true enormity of this scandal.

Climate science is not amenable to empirical proof. When Climate scientists say the ” science is settled”, what they mean is “the majority of climate scientists think this is true” . There is nothing wrong with this, per se. Many scientific disciplines run this way. This system works really well for natural sciences that are not amenable to experimentation. Unfortunately, this way of scientific theorising requires quite a lot of integrity from its scientists. It requires full access to all facts, so that these observed facts can be checked against the theory. What these e-mails tell us is that prominent figures have been selecting facts that accord with their theory and suppressing others that do not. This means that the current consensus of climate science has been developed on a highly selected set of data. It means that the consensus is not worth the paper it is written on.

Note that in a scientific discipline where experimentation is possible, over-selection and suppression of data will be quickly picked up by others repeating the experiment. In climate science it simply leads everyone to false conclusions.

If I was a climatologist, I would be very angry at this point, because it means the past decade of my work would now have to be reinterpreted against a different set of data. The conclusions that I have drawn from my research would all have to be re-examined. Depending on the extent of data massaging and the extent of  suppression of contrary data, climate science may have been set back for years.

And yet the rather odd Dr. Smith is happy to ram through a bill that is likely to be nothing more than an exercise in economic vandalism…

Go figure.

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