Modeled Earthquake Shaking Intensities for New Zealand. Zone of maximum shaking along Alpine Fault indicated by red band.
Source: http://blog.teara.govt.nz

The Alpine Fault will rupture in the near future (quite possibly in your lifetime), without any prior warning. When it does, the scale of the immediate disaster will be unprecedented in New Zealand, and secondary effects will probably continue for decades. The Canterbury earthquakes of 2010 and 2011 served a brutal reminder of how vulnerable we are to strong ground shaking, so perhaps now is the perfect time to collectively improve our understanding of our greatest seismic hazard, and to prepare and build resiliency in vulnerable communities.

What is the Alpine Fault?

The collision of two great tectonic plates is building up strain along New Zealand’s Alpine Fault, which traces the western flanks of Southern Alps. The Alpine Fault is a dominant geomorphic feature  of the South Island, extending some 450 km from Milford Sound to near Springs Junction, where it branches off into the Marlborough Fault System. One of the world’s major fault lines visible on land, it is clearly visible from space, as a remarkable lineament which defines the western edge of the Southern Alps.

The central section of the Alpine Fault.
Source: wiki.gns.cri.nz

The Pacific Plate is moving roughly westwards, and the Australian plate is moving roughly eastwards, at a relative rate of about 45 mm per year.  Along the Alpine Fault, the collision is oblique, so the plates are slipping past one another, rather than one being forced beneath the other (a process called subduction). The relative movement of the plates past one another is not a continuous or gradual slip, but rather a long-term average of much larger, episodic slips (or “ruptures”), which occur every few hundred years. The two plates are currently locked together along the Alpine Fault by friction, but the buildup of energy is not sustainable for much longer.

Plate boundary and average slip rates.
Source: Davies & McSaveney, 2006

Eventually, the strain accumulated over hundreds of years will exceed the strength of the rocks on either side of the fault, culminating in catastrophic failure, and a gigantic release of energy. When the Alpine Fault next ruptures, the land on either side of the fault will separate by about 8 m in the horizontal direction, and up to 4 m in the vertical direction. These huge displacements will result not only in intense shaking, but will likely also tear open the earth over hundreds of kilometres along the fault.

Rock deformation, buildup of strain, and eventual rupture along a fault line.
Source: http://blog.teara.govt.nz

The Alpine Fault is similar in character to the San Andreas Fault in North America; the last major rupture in 1906 devastated the city of San Fransisco, where at least 3,000 people died.  While there aren’t any major cities directly on the Alpine Fault, there are many smaller communities that are very close to the fault (e.g. Franz Josef township). Further away from the fault, places like Queenstown and Greymouth will experience significant and destructive ground shaking. Equally important are the major lifelines that cross the fault, including State Highways 6 and 73, and the sole rail link to the West Coast. The isolated nature of the West Coast will become more poignant as secondary effects like landslides and flooding will affect large areas following the initial earthquake, and with subsequent aftershocks.

Offset fence following the 1906 San Francisco Earthquake (Magnitude ~7.9, Rupture length 475 km, maximum horizontal offset 6m).

When did the Alpine Fault Last Rupture?

The last Alpine Fault earthquake occurred about 300 years ago, (most likely in 1717), generating an earthquake of magnitude 8.1, when at least 380 km of the fault ruptured, from Milford Sound to the Haupiri River. Although this event pre-dated written records in New Zealand, scientists from the University of Canterbury and GNS Science were able to trace the 1717 rupture length using a variety of techniques, including analyzing tree ring records along the fault trace, and radiocarbon dating of the most recent fault scarp (link here).

For How Long Have Great Earthquakes Been Occurring Along the Alpine Fault?

This cycle of strain accumulation and eventual rupture along the Alpine Fault has been occurring with remarkable consistency for many millenia. Scientists have known for decades that the Alpine Fault has ruptured 3-4 times over the past 1000 years, but that record has recently been extended. A 2012 article published in Science (link here) detailed an 8000 year record of large earthquakes on the southern portion of the Alpine Fault. The authors documented 24 surface ruptures, for an average recurrence interval of 330 years, and estimated the probability of a similar rupture occurring within the next 50 years at 30%. Of course, this probability doesn’t actually tell us when the next great earthquake will occur, but merely how surprised we will be when it does happen.

Comparison of record of Great Earthquakes on selected major faults, from Berryman et. al. 2012 (Science)

The Next Alpine Fault Rupture

The latest science confirms that the Alpine Fault is late in its recurrence cycle, and that it will likely rupture again in the near future, generating an earthquake of about moment magnitude (Mw) 8. To put that in perspective, such an event will release approximately 30 times more energy than the Mw 7.1 Darfield earthquake of 4 September, 2010, and up to 1000 times more energy than that produced by the Mw 6.3 earthquake that devastated Christchurch’s CBD on 22 February, 2011. An Alpine Fault earthquake will be felt throughout New Zealand, and probably in Australia as well.

Potential Modified Mercalli shaking intensities (roman numerals) resulting from a rupture of the Alpine Fault (dashed line).

How Will the Next Alpine Fault Rupture Compare to the Christchurch Earthquake of 22 Feb, 2011?

From the perspective of assessing risk, the ground shaking intensity associated with an earthquake is more important than the total energy released, as shaking intensity at a given location is what causes damage. The primary reason that the 22 February earthquake caused so much damage in Christchurch is that the fault rupture was close to the city, and very shallow (5 km deep). This resulted in extremely high ground shaking intensities (Modified Mercalli scale) of MM 8-10, relative to the magnitude of the earthquake. By comparison, seismologists estimate that during an Alpine Fault earthquake, the ground shaking intensity will be around MM 9-10 near the Alpine Fault, and MM 6-7 in more distal locations such as Christchurch and Dunedin. Equally important to the intensity of shaking is the duration; the shaking during an Alpine Fault earthquake will last 2-3 minutes, compared to less than one minute for the Darfield and Christchurch earthquakes. So, while the shaking intensity felt in Christchurch during an Alpine Fault Rupture may be significantly less than during the 22 February (2011) earthquake, the duration will likely be much  longer, so there will still be potential for serious damage.

Looking Ahead: Are We Ready?

Is New Zealand prepared for the next great earthquake on the Alpine Fault? Have our experiences with the recent Canterbury earthquakes made us more capable of dealing with the truly national-scale disaster that will result when the Alpine Fault ruptures? What major short term and lasting effects can we expect from a great earthquake on the Alpine Fault, and who will be most affected? I will address these specific questions in my next post.

If this information gets into the hands of building contractors or other rebuild stakeholders, the ability to obtain a fair settlement could be compromised for many claimants. For example, if Fletcher Building (who are managing most of the leaked claims) gets their hands on the EQC numbers, then any incentive for Fletcher to manage repairs in the best  interest of the claimant, rather than EQC, could be lost.

Despite the potential ramifications of such a massive breach of sensitive financial information, EQC boss Ian Simpson, Earthquake Recovery Minister Gerry Brownlee and Prime Minister John Key have all downplayed the seriousness of the leak, and brushed aside suggestions that this is simply the latest manifestation of a systemic lack of security in government storage of sensitive private information.

This particular leak of private information is cruelly ironic for many EQC claimants, who have been trying for years to get EQC to release the most basic of information on their claims, such as the estimated cost of repair. This is not trivial information; there are probably thousands of disputed “under cap” claims where repair estimates from private insurers and/or independent builders are double, or triple the $100k cap. Knowing what the EQC numbers are based on would be a big step in resolving these disputes; unfortunately the standard line from EQC has been “we can’t provide that information”.

Actually, it seems that they can. And why not? Shouldn’t the EQC and the private insurers be working together to get claims resolved as quickly as possible? Rather than barricading themselves behind locked doors, barring windows and installing razor wire, perhaps EQC staff should focus on their mandate, which is to resolve claims in a fair manner, and in a reasonable time frame. Surely such genuine efforts would do more to appease irate claimants than spending ratepayer money to fortify themselves against the people that they are meant to be looking after? Now that the very information that homeowners have been clamoring for over the past two years has been inadvertently leaked into the public domain, shouldn’t it be made available to all, so that at the very least, claimants can keep builders and private insurers honest?

I fully understand the frustration felt by so many people over this privacy breach. For many Cantabrians living with broken homes, dealing with the EQC has been one of the most stressful and time-consuming process that they have ever undertaken. In fact, I am a case in-point; “make-safe” repairs on our severely damaged, and unsafe (according to a structural engineers report completed right after the September earthquake) home were finally completed in January of this year, 28 months after the damage occurred. Let’s just say that sleeping beneath a shattered, teetering un-reinforced double-brick masonry wall for over two years has not been fun.

Ironically, the only way that we could get any information on our file was to go through the Official Information Act, after hundreds of phone calls and dozens of emails to EQC were futile – we were met with resistance at every corner.

Yet now, claim details which so many people have fought tooth-and-nail to have released, have been leaked into the public domain. Which kind of does feel like (as Green Party Christchurch spokeswoman Eugenie Sage noted), a “slap in the face”.

Many Cantabs  had such high hopes for EQC and the insurance industry, but that has steadily eroded away to wide-spread disillusion and anger. From my perspective as a natural disaster scientist, the most troubling sign is that apathy has started to creep into the once positive and proud psyche of the region. Many people are exhausted and depleted in every conceivable way, not by the thousands of aftershocks, but by the far more harrowing experience of trying to get a fair claim settlement, and many have simply given up, in an effort to get on with their lives. And many people are understandably starting to ask if the insurance industry has been actively facilitating that beaten spirit by stalling on claim settlements.

Even in the face of these challenges, Cantabs are generally very resilient, and remain passionate about rebuilding their beloved city. Fortunately, these are exactly the attributes that allow disaster-ravaged communities to adapt to adversity, and I fully expect the region to flourish in the coming years.

From a natural disaster perspective, Australia is having a much worse year than New Zealand, despite our apparent penchant for earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, flooding, and the occasional crippling winter storm on this side of the ditch. To date, the Insurance Council of Australia has officially declared three natural disasters in 2013 (the Tasmanian bush fires, New South Wales bush fires, and cyclone Oswald). But is Australia’s exceptional season for extreme weather just a blip on an otherwise “normal” climate regime, or is it perhaps a harbinger of worse things to come as our climate continues to warm?

Worse than the Queensland flooding of 2011?

Our poor neighbours across the ditch have been enduring scorching temperatures and raging bush fires for nearly a month, and now the east of the country is being thrashed by extreme weather, this time of the wet variety, courtesy of cyclone Oswald.  Just over a year after Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard called the Queensland floods (December 2011 version) “the worst natural disaster in our history” , Queensland and northeastern NSW are once again being battered by extremely stormy weather, including widespread flooding and tornadoes.

Four people have been already been killed by flooding and storm-related hazards in Queensland, since cyclone Oswald made landfall. Communities such as Bundaberg in Queensland and Grafton in New South Wales are experiencing the worst flooding on record, while parts of Sydney have seen the heaviest rainfalls in over a decade.

The link between extreme weather and climate change

So do these recent extreme-weather-related natural disasters indicate that Australia’s climate is becoming more extreme in a broader sense? After all, heat waves and bush fires have historically been a regular fixture of the Australian climate; the same can be said for tropical storms which affect the east coast of Australia.

Actually, these types of extreme weather have become more frequent, and more severe in recent decades. A few decades ago in Australia, the number of new record high temperatures each year was approximately balanced by the number of new record low temperatures. Recently, the ratio of new record highs to new record lows has increased to 2:1. In 2010, 19 countries set new all-time record highs, but no new low temperature records were set.

Climate warming doesn’t directly cause natural disasters like heat waves, bush fires and tropical storms, but it can contribute to more extreme weather in several ways, including:

• A warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapour, increasing the risk of extreme precipitation,
• Higher temperatures increase the rate of evaporation from soil and water surfaces, as well as evapotranspiration by plants, increasing the frequency and intensity of droughts,
• Higher sea-surface temperatures can cause changes in oceanic and atmospheric circulation patterns, which are driven by gradients in temperature and salinity,
• Warming oceans provide more energy for the development of tropical storms,
• Rising sea level due to melting ice means that many populated areas are increasingly at risk from tsunami and storm surges.

Weather now develops in different climatic conditions than it did just a few decades ago; heat waves are longer and hotter, tropical storms are more frequent and more intense, as are periods of drought.  The cold(?) hard reality is that extreme weather events that can contribute to natural disasters are on the increase.

The graph below illustrates why a small increase in mean annual temperature can shift the climate curve so that extreme heat events become more severe, and much more frequent. Case in point; the extremely hot conditions of this Australian summer are difficult to attribute to a simple blip on an otherwise normal climate regime; far from just a few days of unusually hot weather, much of Australia has been baking for months. A new record was set for average maximum daytime temperatures during the last 4 months of 2012 (which were 1.6 degrees above average ).

Solomon et al. 2007

The hottest day ever in Australia: blistering heat and bush fires

Since the new year, fire-fighting crews have battled hundreds of bush fires in south-east Australia, including in New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania. Prolonged extreme heat combined with high winds to create ideal fire conditions. Average maximum temperatures across the country soared to 40.33 degrees on 7 January, the hottest day ever recorded over the Australian continent; even the Tasmanian capital Hobart reaching nearly 41 degrees. For the first time ever, the continent recorded five consecutive days with an average temperature exceeding 39 degrees; each of the first six days of 2013 were amongst the 20 hottest days on record.

The heat dome over Australia, 7 Jan, 2013 (Image courtesy of Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology)

1.6 degrees above average is a startling increase when averaged over a four month period, but it isn’t just Australia that has been experiencing a warmer climate: according to the Climate Change Research Centre (University of NSW), the number of very warm days (defined by the warmest 5% of days between 1950 and 1980) has increased by nearly 40% globally since 1983.

Whatever the sceptics may say, our climate is becoming more extreme, and Australia is merely the latest place to suffer from the effects of global warming.

Mount Tongariro Eruption. Source: TVNZ

A Geonet webcam at Mt. Tongariro has captured spectacular footage of yesterday’s eruption, which lasted approximately 5 minutes, ejecting an ash column and plume some 3-4 km above the Te Maari crater. There have not been any reports of injuries or damage, beyond a light dusting of ash falling near the volcano.

The volcano burst into life again yesterday without any warning; seismic monitoring stations near the vent recorded no activity before the eruption. Tongariro has been returned to an Alert Level 2 (i.e. minor eruptive activity), with an aviation colour code of orange (minor ash ejection).

Since yesterday’s eruption (the first since 16 August; that eruption was from the same vent) activity has been low, but GNS scientists believe that the risk of further eruptive activity remains high, with a significant probability of additional eruptions over the next week.

In the late 1880s through to 1896, Tongariro erupted several times. If yesterday’s eruption is indicative of a similar eruptive sequence, we could be in for a prolonged period of volcanic acitivity at Tongariro.

In addition, nearby Mt. Ruapehu has shown signs of increased pressure buildup beneath the Crater Lake over the past week, and GNS Science has warned visitors to the mountain that there is an increased likelihood of an eruption there as well. Ruapehu is currently on an alert level of 1 (i.e. signs of volcano unrest).

Volcanologists remain uncertain as to whether or not recent activity at the two volcanos is linked, and Geonet is advising visitors to the area to stay out of designated restricted zones.

Seismic signature of Tongariro eruption. GeoNet

Last night Mount Tongariro burst into life, erupting for the first time in over 100 years. The eruption raised the Geonet volcanic alert from level 1 to 2, with an accompanying aviation colour code of red. The Tongariro alert level had been upped to level 1 on 20^th of July 2012, due to increased seismic activity and other signs of volcanic unrest.  However, according to GNS volcanologist Michael Rosenberg, last night’s eruption was still a surprise, as seismic activity under the volcano appeared to be on the decline in recent days.  He warned that although the volcano seems relatively quiet at the moment, this early in the eruptive sequence it is impossible to know whether Tongariro’s activity will escalate in to a full-scale eruption.

According to GNS science, Tongariro is a large volcanic complex consisting of many cones that have been constructed over the past 275,000 years. There have been five recorded prior eruptions from the Te Mari craters, the last one in 1897.  Some 12 homes on the southern shores of Lake Rotoaira (~6 km away from the eruption) had a spectacular view of last night’s event, and eyewitness accounts confirm that the current eruption began around 11:50 pm yesterday with a violent explosion, accompanied by a red glow and flashes of lightning. Rocks and sand-like ash were apparently ejected from the volcano, causing concern for some residents, who reported seeing new vents on the side of the mountain (stuff.co.nz). The prevailing westerly winds have so far been driving the ash cloud to the east and south, with ash falls reported as far away as Napier. There aren’t any evacuation orders at present, but GNS and Civil Defence continue to monitor the situation closely.

Ash fall near Tongariro. Peter Drury photo.

A level 2 alert indicates the onset of “minor eruptive activity”, while the red aviation code means that significant ash is being ejected into the atmosphere. An ash plume extended up to 7 km high following the eruption, with up to 5 cm of ash settling near Mt. Tongariro. Both State Highway 46 and the Desert Road have been closed due to poor visibility. Volcanic ash dispersion is especially disruptive to air traffic; in addition to the dangers of lightning and reduced visibility within ash clouds, abrasive ash particles can damage aircraft engines, instruments and windscreens. Ingestion of ash into jet turbine engines can result in melting of the particles, which can then re-solidify and accumulate on the turbines, potentially causing engine stall.

So far, relatively minor air traffic delays are being reported by Auckland International Airport, with most international flights operating as scheduled. However, there are some delays and cancellations to domestic flights, particularly those from the eastern-southeastern North Island, where the ash cloud is having the most impact (e.g. Napier, Gisborne, Palmerston North). Civil Defence is cautioning people affected by the ash cloud to remain indoors and close all windows and doors.

No ash has yet been reported on the Whakapapa or Turoa ski fields, which are open for business as usual today.

A time lapse sequence of images from GNS’s Tongariro volcano camera is available at geonet.org.nz; the images do not appear to capture the actual eruption, likely because cloud cover had obscured the mountain.

Stay tuned for further developments.

Mount Tongariro prior to the eruption. GNS.

Tourists stranded by floodwaters in Nelson. Source: The Nelson Mail

Rain-laden clouds from the north Tasman sea settled over the top of the south island several days ago, and have been drenching the Nelson and Golden Bay regions ever since. Extreme rainfall has been recorded in Takaka, Richmond and Nelson, with the Kotinga gauge at Takaka recordind an unprecedented 423mm in 24 hours. The estimated 24 hour rainfall for a 1-in-100 year event at Takaka is 380mm (Tasman district council here). The previous highest recorded 24-hour rainfall from the Kotinga gauge was 216.5mm in 1995.

Saturated hillsides have given way in many locations, with landslides and debris torrents reportedly causing widespread damage in the region (stuff.co.nz story here).

Flooding, Nelson. Photo: Tim Bow

Landslide, Nelson. Source: The Nelson Mail

Flooding, Nelson. source: stuff.co.nz

Backyard Swimming Hole. Source: stuff.co.nz

Fortunately, all the news is not bad, as the rain has been easing, with heavy precipitation moving towards the North Island, where Taranaki, Northland and the Bay of Plenty can expect up to 150mm of rain.

Flooding in Thailand Source: thesun.co.uk

Many of the world’s largest auto manufacturers have major factories in Thailand, including Toyota, Honda, Nissan and Ford. As the world’s largest manufacturer and exporter of hard-disk drives, Thailand hosts hard-disk giants Western Digital, and Seagate Technology. Sony, Toshiba, Apple and Canon also rely on their Thailand manufacturing facilities to supply the global demand for consumer electronics.

Worst Flooding in 50 years

Since flooding began in northern Thailand in July of this year, the country has been coping with another deadly natural disaster; one that will also have global economic implications. With a mean rainfall of nearly 800 mm for the three-month period from August to October, Bangkok is no stranger to flooding, but an exceptionally wet monsoon season in the north has brought the worst flooding in over 50 years. Swollen rivers and floodwaters have gradually made their way towards the south, threatening the most populated regions surrounding the bay of Bangkok. Thailand is a country of 67 million people, with an estimated 9 million living in the capital city of Bangkok, where much of the city is merely 2 metres above mean sea level. The immediate impacts of the disaster have only begun to materialize:

• nearly 400 lives lost to date

• more than 100,000 people displaced from homes

• one-third of the country inundated, including major agricultural and industrial areas

• damage estimates >$6 billion US dollars

As Bangkok braces for another day, 1.2 billion cubic metres of flood water is expected to peak around the same time as high tide. Government officials have thrown in the towel in the fight to contain the rising flood waters. As low-lying areas of the city become inundated, thousands of people continue to flee the capital for higher ground. Tourism officials issued travel warnings earlier today advising tourists that “flooding in Bangkok now appears imminent”. Indeed.

Submerged Cars at Honda Factory in Thailand

Toyota is not alone. Many other manufacturing companies spanning a wide range of industries have been impacted by the flooding. The economic impacts of this disaster will soon be brought home to us all, in the form of decreased availability, and higher prices on many goods, including automobiles, electronics, clothing, and food.

As has been the case with many recent flood disasters (eg. Pakistan in 2010), this years flooding in Thailand may have been exacerbated by human activity (or inactivity in this case). Despite high precipitation in northern Thailand at the beginning of the monsoon season, some down-steam water storage reservoirs were not drawn down enough in the early stages of flooding, leaving less capacity for temporary storage of flood waters. But that is a topic for another post.

Click here to view the embedded video.

This video of the tsunami was taken by a dashboard camera in a car that was presumably abandoned on the road. It’s a different perspective. The currents & debris seem to swirl around and come from different directions, perhaps as new wave fronts conflict with receding waters. How terrifying, especially for those trapped in or on top of floating cars.

eqc.govt.nz

How Has the EQC Performed Following the Canterbury Earthquakes?

How would the EQC cope, when faced with the monumental task of managing nearly 400,000 claims from two major events in close succession? That was always going to be a tall order. Nearly one year on from the Greendale fault rupture, what can we say about the EQCs performance?

Unsurprisingly, the EQC has struggled to cope, and have been facing increasing criticism on several issues following the Christchurch earthquakes, including:
• withholding contractor payment for repairs (article here)
• length of time to process claims (article here)
• duplication of effort within EQC, and with private insurers
• lack of communication with homeowners and contractors

While I expect that the EQC had every intention of addressing the concerns raised in the 2009 review (see previous post here), I doubt that there was sufficient time, political will or funding to actually make any meaningful changes prior to 4 September, 2010. Not surprisingly then, many of the concerns raised in the review have come to fruition (my personal experiences relating to each point in italics):

 duplication of effort between the EQC and private insurers has caused major bottlenecks and delays. Some 80,000 claims have been delayed due to insufficient information provided by homeowners (nzherald.co.nz, 26 July). In many cases the repair estimates from private insurers and the EQC have not been in agreement, presumably because they have not worked together or shared information.
My personal experience:
- we have been assured by every assessor that has visited our home that we are over the $100k EQC cap. If that is the case, why wouldn’t the EQC just pay us out, and pass the claim onto our private insurer? Instead, both the EQC and private insurer are still individually going through their lengthy assessment processes and audits, rather than working as a team.

 Excessive assessments, inspections. Is it necessary?
My personnel experience:
- EQC: 3 “quick” assessments, 2 full assessments
- Private Insurer: 3 preliminary assessments, 2 full assessments, 1 flooring assessment
- Fletcher Building: 1 quick emergency assessment, 1 unsolicited visit for emergency repairs (repair work already done ourselves)
- Structural Engineer: 1 inspection
- CCC fire service: helped to remove badly damaged and unsafe chimney, thanks!
So, that’s about 14 inspections since the September earthquake, and we still haven’t had a stitch of work done other than what we’ve done ourselves, seen any resolution from EQC or our private insurance company, or even been told what to expect! We just want to get on with the repairs!

 Why aren’t some contractors getting paid? Stories persist of contractors going out of business as they struggle to get paid for EQC work. Insurance companies refuse to reinsure businesses, citing the risk of further damage to buildings from aftershocks. This is further crippling the rebuilding process (article here).
My personal experience:
- Our structural engineers report was submitted in October of last year, and as of last week they say they still hadn’t been paid for that work by the EQC.

 Communication: Very few people have actually been able to get any meaningful answers from the EQC. There isn’t any “shop front” where people can go and speak to a real person about their problems, instead they spend countless hours on the phone (mostly on hold), trying to get answers. In fact, the EQC brand isn’t anywhere to be seen these days, as the EQC logo seems to have been removed from most personnel and vehicles. Is this so that EQC workers don’t have to front up to an angry public? The other day I noticed an otherwise nondescript white car with two fellows aboard wearing high viz vests. In tiny black letters beside the registration plate was written “EQC 21″. How quickly the EQC has adopted a low profile in Canterbury.
My personal experience:
- Despite calling and emailing the EQC some 40 times, we do not seem to be any closer to resolving our claim. Each time we speak to a different person (of first name only), and never have we been assigned a “case manager” who understands and looks after our unique claim. We have been promised a return call or email by many of these well-meaning EQC people, but not one has ever actually followed through with that promise. Weeks, perhaps months of our lives have been dedicated to just trying to get answers.

 Claim Processing Time: what is an acceptable time frame? Is 6 months, or a year an acceptable time frame given the circumstances? Is it fair to take that long to process a simple contents claim, and still ask homeowners to hang onto high-value damaged items as proof of ownership?

In fairness to the EQC, it’s in all of our best interest for them to be thorough and fair when it comes to processing claims. We don’t want them to be wasting our premiums on fraudulent or unfounded claims. But there must be a balance between efficiency of settling claims, and scrupulous auditing, especially when resources are stretched to the limit, and the task at hand is so enormous. Shouldn’t the EQC be working with the insurance industry to streamline the claims process? Surely the cost of crippling the rebuild process will be far greater than a few missed audits. I hope that the EQC learns from this experience, and improves their efficiency for future major disasters.

What Does the Future Hold?

As a homeowner in Christchurch, I have found the claims process to be frustrating. However, I accept that there are thousand of other people who have much greater issues than I. Homes can be repaired or rebuilt, but many others have lost family members or friends. As a Natural Hazards and Disaster scientist, I can appreciate that most of us are very fortunate indeed. It is clear that the Canterbury earthquakes are an opportunity to better understand and prepare for future large disasters in New Zealand. That opportunity extends to all of use, from the scientific community, to local and central government, and the general public. We can, we should, and we will be better prepared for the next major natural disaster in New Zealand.

Following today’s shocker announcement by the government that the Canterbury earthquakes are now expected to cost the EQC $4 billion more than expected, it is now apparent that the EQCs $6 billion reserve will be decimated. Just a few days ago it was reported that there would be around $2.5 billion of that reserve left, plus a further $2.5 billion of reinsurance for future events (article here). Todays announcement by ministers Bill English and Gerry Brownlee has increased concern about the long-term viability of the EQC’s Natural Disaster Relief Fund. Despite retaining a AAA credit rating, the EQC faces rising reinsurance costs, with all of their four primary reinsurance contracts due for renewal by the end of 2013, and this with effectively no assets to leverage, other than government gaurantees. This raises questions about how the EQC will replenish their coffers. Is an earthquake tax or levy the quickest way to build reserves back up to at least 2009 levels, so that the EQC has the capacity to cope with future major disasters?  Reserve levels should be restored relatively quickly – let’s not forget that an Alpine Fault or Wellington earthquake, a major volcanic eruption, or a tsunami could affect New Zealand at any time, and it’s always better to save up for a rainy day than to have to borrow to pay for it. So, it seems an inevitable consequence that our EQC levies will rise substantially, and I would be surprised if an earthquake levy isn’t on the cards. Perhaps the incumbent National government will wait until after the election to announce such a tax. But higher EQC premiums and tax increases are not all bad.

A Wonderful, Rich, and Active Land

The major economies of New Zealand, including tourism, dairy and mining are a direct consequence of living in this wonderful, active landscape. Our collective wealth was born of fertile valley bottoms and alluvial plains, rich volcanic soils, and abundant fresh and coastal waters. Our mountain ranges are uplifted by tectonic forces just as steadily as they are eroded and weathered by wind, rain and ice, bringing mineral wealth near the surface, where we can exploit them. Our varied and spectacular landscape facilitates one of the world’s most important tourism industries, despite our relative isolation. This active landscape is an important part of what makes New Zealand unique and special. Therefore it should come as no surprise when hazardous natural processes occasionally affect our lives, and we should prepare for those instances as best we can. I for one can accept higher EQC premiums or tax increases, knowing that we are preparing for the inevitable natural disasters of the future.

Where Would we be Without the EQC?

In other disaster-prone areas of the world, where publicly-owned EQC-equivalents do not exist, private insurance companies are reluctant to expose themselves to the additional risk associated with many natural disasters. Disaster insurance is therefore very limited, very expensive, or both. In California for example, natural disaster insurance can cost several hundreds to thousands of dollars per year, and commonly carries excesses of 10-20% of the insured value. That means paying an excess of $20-50k or more in the event of a major disaster, consequently many homeowners choose to bear the risk themselves and forgo natural disaster insurance altogether.

The inadequacies of relying on non-disaster-specific insurance in disaster-prone areas was clearly evident following the costliest natural disaster in US history, 2005′s hurricane Katrina (over 1300 dead and US $108 billion damage). The majority of homeowners in the Gulf region did not carry separate flood insurance, and the insurance industry declined many claims on the basis that damage was caused by flooding, rather than by wind or wind-driven rain. The resulting anger, fear and uncertainty amongst those hundreds of thousands of people without flood insurance was finally addressed with an unprecedented disaster-assistance payout by the US federal government.

Here in New Zealand, we thankfully have some certainty. Homeowners have been paying into the EQC pot for decades, spreading out the financial impact of a future major disaster. That “rainy day” has finally come, and the Natural Disaster Fund is being called upon. Despite all the headaches of dealing with insurance claims, and the slow pace of assessments and claim settlement in Canterbury, I am very glad that we at least have some peace of mind, knowing that the EQC is there. Let’s hope that New Zealand’s EQC remains strong and committed to responding to natural disasters in the future, and that we all learn from and build upon the lessons of this past year.