SciBlogs

Daily Deals and Altmed Pseudoscience Darcy Cowan May 09

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I’ve been noticing the occasional product on the daily deal site I frequent that is, how to put this delicately, BS.

Today I saw one that I just had to have some fun with and hopefully give people some idea of what the product is really about at the same time.

In this case the product was an “Energy Calcium Activation Cup”. I hadn’t heard of these before but the altmed buzzword combo of “energy” and “activation” got my attention.

The forum moderators tend to be quick to remove questions about products that are overtly critical so I had to play a bit dumb and make sure I didn’t get too much to the point. The outcome was quite amusing:

Grabone Magic Cup

You can see the discussion at:
http://www.grabonestore.co.nz/energy-calcium-activation-cup/discuss (or archived at  http://www.webcitation.org/6GTWgpSot just in case the entire thing gets deleted after this post goes live)

I would like to thank the company liaison Sabina Chadliwa who here was very forthcoming and quite speedy in comparison with other companies I have interacted with in this way. No offense is meant to her – but BS is BS.

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Filed under: Alternative medicine, Sciblogs, skepticism Tagged: pseudoscience

The Scientific Method On TV Darcy Cowan Apr 29

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Last week Michael Edmonds asked “Which TV Show Best Demonstrates the Scientific Method?
Various shows where suggested such as CSI and NCIS. Bones made an appearance in the comments as one show that exhibits a fair amount of pseudoscience along with it’s “real” science. House was praised for it’s attention to hypothesis generation and testing. I generally agree with that but found the fact that House always came up with the correct answer alone and via an epiphany type insight a bit unsatisfying.

In any case most shows do poorly at portraying science, this comes inevitably out of the fact that the show is there to tell a story. The science may or may not help with that but in the end it is merely set dressing for the real aim. I’m fine with that – I watch a lot of tv and aside for the odd grumble along the lines of “It would take longer than that!” or “You wouldn’t do it that way!” I’m happy enough to suspend my criticism and enjoy the ride.

But the question remains – which show does it best? Over the weekend an answer came to me that might be cheating a bit, but I think the best I’ve seen lately is one called “Guess with Jess“*.
Guess with Jess

If it sounds like a kids show, you’re right – it is.

The basic set up is like this: A cat decides on a question for the day and then sets about trying to answer it. Pretty simple.

I think it does pretty well showing the methods of science:
A question is generated via an observation of the world, a “literature” search is conducted to find what is already known on the topic (via asking the other animals), a hypothesis is generated that fits the question and what is known, the hypothesis is tested and the results observed to see if it answers the question. Often the first attempt is incorrect, so the question is refined, another “literature” search is conducted, another hypothesis generated and another round of testing conducted.

At the end an answer is arrived at which satisfies our feline protagonist and everyone is happy at having learned something new. Possibly Jess goes off to write a grant proposal – I’m not sure.

So that’s my answer. Adult fiction is too focused on telling a compelling story with relate-able characters in a limited time frame to make more than a passing effort at getting the science right. But that’s ok, we can rely on a young cat named Jess to pick up the slack.

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* If a black and white cat named Jess sounds familiar, you might remember that this describes the cat of Postman Pat. According to wikipedia they are one in the same, I’m not sure if Jess has been put out to pasture or if this depicts Jess’s life before settling down with Pat.

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Filed under: Sciblogs, Science Tagged: Educational Resources, Science in Society, Scientific method, Television

Some Statistics On the Science Literacy Test Darcy Cowan Jan 24

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Ok, it’s been a couple of days now and about 400 people have responded on the quiz. Amazing!

Some updates: I’ve added some demographic questions so if you have already filled out the quiz you can do it again to fill out the new data set! YAY!

Questions look at age, education level – that sort of stuff.

Anyway what have we found so far?

Average score is 24 with 68% of respondents being within +/- 3 points of this value (1 standard deviation for those who remember such things). The lowest score 4. A mere 7 respondents scored lower than 15. Almost 380 people got 20 or higher

With each subcategory of the test being so small (5 questions or less) and with so many people getting greater than 20 these are pretty difficult to interpret – so I won’t.

If anyone wants the full data set I’m happy to provide it, it’ll only get better and more interesting with those demographic questions added, so take it again – really – that would be cool. And pass it around especially if you have colleagues, family and friends that are outside of the science arena!

Here’s the link again. Enjoy, it’s fun – honest.

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Filed under: Sciblogs Tagged: quiz, Science and Society, Scientific literacy, Test

Science Literacy Test Initial Follow-up Darcy Cowan Jan 23

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Yesterday’s post about the Science Literacy test has gotten some good responses.

Thought I’d put up a couple of initial thoughts/feed-back on the testing:

First off it’s becoming clear that some of the questions are ambiguously worded. This is especially obvious in the results for questions 12 and 14.

Question 12, looking at categorizing sources, is worded in such a way that it is not clear whether the question refers to the story extract itself or the sources used in the story extract. This means that respondents incorrectly label the source as “Primary” (correct for the sources used for the story extract) and “Tertiary” (correct for the story extract itself and therefore the correct answer for the question).

The other one that people are obviously getting wrong because of the wording (including myself) is question 14. This question asks what element of a study design is not a strength of the study.

This implies that you are to critique the design as it is actually presented, not how it could have been. Thus people are choosing the option that is “least wrong”. A bit of a change in this wording to make it clear what design could have been used but wasn’t or that could have made the study better or even restricting the answer options to just the study elements present in the background information would probably bring the score for this question up.

Interestingly there are a few questions nobody has gotten wrong, indicating they may be a little too easy (but perhaps the sample size is still too small yet, 45 responders so far).

The first question “Which of the following is a valid scientific argument?” has a 100% responder correctness score. As does Question 16 on the proportions of house building materials and question 20 on the rat population. Question 27 “Which of the following actions is a valid scientific course of action?” also has a 100% score.

So, great stuff so far, as I mentioned there’s been about 45 people taking part so far and things already are shaping up nicely. So spread the word and lets see how many people we can get. If possible it would be nice to get constructive criticism on the question wording like I have done above that can be feed back to the original test designers.

Thanks for the interest so far and keep it up!

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Filed under: Sciblogs, Science Tagged: Education, Science and Society, Science Literacy

Test your Science Literacy Skills Darcy Cowan Jan 22

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Last week an interesting paper was published outlining the development of a test designed to evaluate science literacy. The basic idea of the test is to examine a number of different skills that are involved in evaluating scientific claims and facts.

I liked this idea so much I decided to put together an online version of the quiz that people could take and get instant feedback for. This could also be adapted for use in an educational environment as intended in the original paper.

To that end I need beta testers, people who would like to take the test and give me feed-back on how to improve it. A couple of things I need to mention at this point:
First, the test will ask for your email address in order to send a summary of how well you did on the test. Your email address will not be used for any other purpose and indeed I’ve set up the back-end so that the address will be deleted as soon as your email is sent – your private information will remain that way.
With this in mind – If you have feed-back about your performance, there is no way for me to tell which entry is yours unless you give me the time you submitted the form.

Secondly, I have used some custom html code in creating the form which doesn’t integrate seamlessly with the google drive document that runs most of the functionality. This means if you miss a required question (all of them are required FYI) than you will be re-directed to the original form of the test, this will look a bit different and will not contain the pictures (but will have urls you can use to get to them).
You can either continue with this version of the form or hit your browser’s Back button and fill out the questions you missed there.

Finally, If you have and comments or suggestions leave them here and I’ll see what I can do. Also I am actually fairly mediocre at html coding and such like so if there is anyone who wants to volunteer their services to upgrade the quiz I’m happy to share the load :) .

Ok, here’s the link to get you started, have fun.

[Edit: Here's a link to some initial analysis of the results]

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Filed under: Sciblogs, Science Tagged: Scientific literacy

Anti-Vaccine Charity, No More Darcy Cowan Nov 07

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Last year I wrote a series of posts[1] around the Charitable organisation Immunisation Awareness Society and a complaint I had made to the Charities Commission. The Thrust of these posts and the complaint was that the Society does not fulfill the requirements of a charity and should be removed from the register. The effect of this is that they would also be stripped of their tax exempt status.

This indeed was my main goal. There are innumerable groups out there that I don’t agree with but you get that in a wide and varied world. In the case of the IAS though the speech they engage is is effectively publicly subsidised via the tax exemption, this should mean that they are constrained in what they can say. At the very least it should mean that they must present the facts undistorted by ideology.

Yesterday I found out that the Charities Commission agrees with me. In a decision handed down late last month they determined that the IAS does not qualify for charitable status and removed them from the charities register.

So, I guess you could say – I won.

It the words of one of my colleagues it also shows that one person can make a difference. Clichéd but true.

Reading through the Charities Commission decision it seems they focused on two things:

1. The biased nature of the information provided by the IAS and;

2. The political nature of their campaigning for a change in public policy.

This makes sense given the requirements that the Commission need to fulfil to determine whether an organisation meets the requirements to be a charity. Even so I’m a bit disappointed that there was no focus on the factual inaccuracy of and misrepresentation in the materials published by the IAS.

The decision does seem to skirt this line though when stating that  “Overwhelmingly, the information on the website argues that vaccination is ineffective and dangerous” the inference being that is view is incorrect as well as being biased. Even so, none of the language of the report actually states this outright (that I can see).

There was also an additional point touched on that merely providing information does not in and of itself “advance education”. In other words to be an educational charity you actually have to actively educate people, not simply act as a repository of information – otherwise every private citizen with a decent library or informational website could become a charity.

Finally, in my personal 15 minutes of fame, the Commissions decision has been reported in the Dominion Post – complete with a quote from me. Not my most eloquent moment but it’s close enough to the point I wanted to make that I’m fairly happy.

[Edit: Thanks goes to commenter Hemlock for sharing the IAS response to this news]

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1.  And here they are in all their tedious glory:
http://scepticon.wordpress.com/2011/10/11/anti-vaccine-charities-is-there-any-quality-control-on-charities/

http://scepticon.wordpress.com/2011/10/11/ias-complaint-part-1-thimerosal-in-your-vaccine-no/

http://scepticon.wordpress.com/2011/10/12/ias-complaint-part-2-gardasil-horrors-horrific-reasoning/

http://scepticon.wordpress.com/2011/10/13/ias-complaint-part-3-vaccine-ingredients-not-so-bad-really/

http://scepticon.wordpress.com/2011/10/14/ias-complaint-part-4-anti-vaccine-impact-in-new-zealand/

http://scepticon.wordpress.com/2011/10/17/defending-the-term-anti-vaccine/

http://scepticon.wordpress.com/2011/10/18/the-legitimate-risks-of-vaccines/

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Filed under: Medicine, Sciblogs, Science, skepticism Tagged: Health and Medicine, IAS complaint, Science and Society, Vaccination, Vaccine

Battle for the iPhone Might Make You Like it More Darcy Cowan Oct 01

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I happened to be browsing and saw a review of the newly released iPhone 5. On a whim I figured I’d have a look, turned out the most interesting part of the review for me was the misunderstanding of psychology in the opening paragraphs.

In setting up how “everyman” their acquisition of the new phone was the author provided a teaching moment on the ins and outs of investment bias and how we prefer things when they are hard to get.

Here’s the extract of relevance:

“Just to be clear, this isn’t some corporate review unit we’re talking about—we waited outside at the hellacious crack of dawn in a hell-pit shopping mall alongside people who were willing to actually hit each other for a new phone. We battled line-cutters and a shifty AT&T retail manager. I wasn’t due for a new contract, so I ponied up extra money for a semi-subsidized handset I was truthfully only buying because I shattered my last one.

I say this both because we got this phone like most people did, and because it was a gigantic pain in the ass. I had every reason to resent the iPhone 5. And yet…”

This might be intuitive but actually gets the psychology precisely backwards. We actually value things more highly if we are force to go through hardship to get them.

A similar effect is seen with the (now illegal) “hazing” rituals of American college fraternities. These groups would put new recruits through torturous initiation rites. You would think that any normal person would despise with a passion the person or group that did this to them but that’s not the case; these rituals inculcate a fierce loyalty to the group.

One theory to explain this is that of Cognitive Dissonance, the reasoning goes that people are justifying the effort by convincing themselves that they really like the group/item/task that they had to go through so much pain to join/get/complete because otherwise they are some sort of moron. Ok maybe not quite in those terms, but you get the idea.

To illustrate this from a slightly different perspective here’s the defining early experiment demonstrating the effect. Participants in the study had to complete an extremely boring task (adding and removing spools from a tray and turning pegs for about an hour). They were then paid to lie to a new participant about how enjoyable the task was, for this they were pain either 1$ or $20.

After this the participants rated honestly how enjoyable they found the task.

Those who were paid $20 predictably rated the task as boring, but those paid only $1 rated it as relatively more enjoyable.

These participants had done something relatively distasteful (lying) for very small reward ($1), as such they had two choices consider themselves liars or alter their attitudes about the task to seem like they hadn’t really lied at all. Being the heroes of their own story, as we all are, they “chose” the second option.

How does this relate to the hardship of getting an iPhone on release day? Well, if you go through all that effort you are either a schmuck, or the product really is that good. I know which one I’d rather believe.

That’s not to say the phone isn’t that good, could be. But it is one more thing to cement loyalty to the brand. Maybe other brands should take note.

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Filed under: Psychological, Sciblogs Tagged: Cognitive Dissonance, IPhone, Science and Society

Energy Mirages and the False Hope of “Water Powered Cars” Darcy Cowan Aug 06

This morning while perusing my news feeds I saw this article lamenting the state of scientific ignorance and bald political grandstanding in Pakistan. The specific item that prompted this lambasting of an entire country is the claim by one individual to be able the fuel cars using water – and the near unanimous support of this character within the political and scientific realms – despite the physical impossibility of this feat.

I think the author of this article is quite correct in his condemnation of this person and those who support him who tout this technology as a solution to the country’s energy woes. That said I think he does his audience a disservice in not breaking down the claims more fully to explain why this “invention” is not all that it seems and why it will not act as a panacea for the dependence on fossil fuels and the deficit of energy that Pakistan endures.*

It is explained that you cannot run a car on water due to the fact that that it would require a reversal of the second law of thermodynamics. A law that is deemed so fundamental to the operation of the universe that it prompted this quote from a distinguished scientist:

“The law that entropy always increases, holds, I think, the supreme position among the laws of Nature. If someone points out to you that your pet theory of the universe is in disagreement with Maxwell’s equations — then so much the worse for Maxwell’s equations. If it is found to be contradicted by observation — well, these experimentalists do bungle things sometimes. But if your theory is found to be against the second law of thermodynamics I can give you no hope; there is nothing for it but to collapse in deepest humiliation. ”

Sir Arthur Stanley Eddington, The Nature of the Physical World (1927)

But this is not the end of the story. For while the “inventor” and his supporters use the word “fuel” to refer to the water, it is a misnomer as we normally understand the word. A fuel is something that supplies energy, it stores energy that is created by one of any number of processes and enables it to be used to do work seconds, hours or millennia after the energy was first produced.

This is what fossil fuels are – the condensed energy of biological processes that occurred millions of years ago. We tap this energy and use it to run our cars, and depending on where you live, the entire rest of our lives.

So what’s this to do with water?

Well, simply put water is the end product of energy use. It is not a storage medium it is a waste product. It would be like saying you’ll run your furnace on ash. You would be laughed out of the human race. But say you’ll use the magical liquid of life – water – and for some reason people think there’s something to this idea.

Now, what is the proclaimed inventor claiming? When you get right down to it he knows the water isn’t a fuel. He is in effect using the water as a convenient hydrogen source. It is the hydrogen that runs the car, and presumably the “water-kit” enables the car to process this hydrogen as it would petrol. The kit also contains an electrolysis component that splits the water into hydrogen and oxygen. I am unaware as to whether the oxygen released is retained to react with the hydrogen or whether atmospheric oxygen is used for this.

In any case the energy for running the car comes not from the water, but the batteries used to extract the hydrogen. The hydrogen then becomes the interim energy storage medium and the “fuel” for the car.

What we have then is the energy generation being pushed back a step, instead of being done at the car via petrol, it will be handled by the country’s power plants.

I can well imagine that there are benefits to converting cars to this set-up. It effectively turns your automobile into one of this new fangled electric cars without the downside of looking like a self-righteous dick*. There are benefits to using electric cars even if the ultimate power generation comes from fossil fuel consuming power plants (which by my calculation more than half of Pakistan’s electricity comes from) such as local air quality improvements. The ability to deal with emissions at centralised locations and the possibility of sequestering that pesky CO2 at the source.

I suspect however that in the rush to embrace the technology at issue here these peripheral concerns are not really being considered. And for a country that already has too little electricity for the population it has (40% of the country has no access to electricity, and demand is ever increasing for those that do) this does not sound like such a great idea and won’t result in everyone having unlimited fuel for their cars. It can only add to the pressure on the already over-taxed electrical grid.

In addition it is being implied (if not outright stated) that water could be used to run generators. This is where you could justifiably call fraud. While there are conceivable reasons why you might convert a car to “run” on water those reason evaporate when you try to argue that the same can be done for a generator. I’m sure you can see why. You end up just inserting an extra step in the energy generation process, well more like a loop. You have to provide energy to the water to extract the hydrogen and then burn the hydrogen back to water to get the energy. Thanks to that second law thingy you will never get more energy out of that reaction than you out in.

Not only do you insert a completely useless extra step, in doing so you guarantee that the whole process is less efficient. You literally get less combustion for your buck.

I hope that no government official is seriously considering funding a project to replace generators with water powered devices, though I gather millions may be spent investigating the possibility of employing this technology in Pakistan. I don’t know where that money (assuming people don’t wake up by then) is intended to go.

This is the concern whenever fringe theories and technologies are held up as the solution to our problems, that money will be wasted on these rather than put toward more worthy projects.

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* A more thorough treatment is here, by former chairman of the Pakistani – Higher Education Commission  Dr Attaur Rehman.

** Just kidding. For what it’s worth I think electric cars are really cool and if I could spare the dosh would love to have one. But I gather there is something of a stigma and well it’s a joke – lets not analyse it too much eh?

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Filed under: Hoaxes, Sciblogs, Science, skepticism Tagged: Electric car, Pakistan, Science, Science and Society, second law of thermodynamics

Guess what Percentage of the World Thinks it Will End In Their lifetime? Darcy Cowan May 07

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The optimist in me (no sniggers please it’s not polite) would liked to have thought that this percentage is quite low. You know, in the barely worth mentioning category. Alas, according to a poll conducted by Ipsos the world average is about 14%.

One in seven.

Think about that for a second.

One seventh of the world thinks they will see the end of civilisation as we know it.

One prediction has only a few weeks to go before hitting the cold light of reality, it won’t be the last. Why? I don’t know – You tell me.

I’ve given up, people are crazy.

Filed under: Hoaxes, Psychological, Sciblogs, skepticism Tagged: end-of-the-world, Science and Society

TCM and You: Cupping Darcy Cowan Apr 04

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I have noticed that Chinese massage seems to be becoming popular, and seemingly with it Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM1). At least browsing through two of the larger shopping centres in Hamilton (bring on the hick jokes) I saw massage centres offering these services. In particular cupping was advertised. But what exactly is cupping2?

As with many modalities in TCM Cupping appears to be based on pre-scientific notions of blood stagnation and energy blockages3. Applying cups with a slight vacuum to the skin is meant to draw out the “toxins” which then results in improved health, somehow.

The active part of cupping essentially boils down to a pressure difference. The pressure is lower on the inside of the cup and greater on the outside, this difference causes the skin to be forced up into the cup4. This process in turn causes blood to gather in the region and may cause minor damage to the area resulting in bruising.

Presumably the fact that the skin appears to be drawn up into the cup gives the impression that there is a general pulling action at work here and that toxins and other “bad stuff” are pulled out of the body in this fashion.

The trouble with this is that pressure difference is a fairly crude physical process and with regard to this biological system lacks what we in the science biz call “Specificity”5. What this means is that there is no way for the cup to restrict the “pulling action” to only harmful chemicals (the “toxins”, say) and allow everything else to be unaffected, i.e. it is not “specific” to toxins. Everything will be drawn up in the same way.

In which case you get a lovely bruise and feel like you’ve done something but that’s about it.

Ok, that’s fine for just thinking about it. What about evidence, we’re always going on about evidence here.

I attempted to find a Cochrane review on cupping but while one was listed for pain relief there did not seem to be a completed review for perusal. I did come across this review that found equivocal results for the effectiveness of cupping for pain.

The review comments on the putative mechanism of cupping:

“Assuming that cupping was beneficial for the management of pain conditions, its mechanisms of action may be of interest. The postulated modes of actions include the interruption of blood circulation and congestion as well as stopping the inflammatory extravasations (escaping of bodily fluids such as blood) from the tissues. Others have postulated that cupping could affect the autonomic nervous system and help to reduce pain . None of these theories are, however, currently established in a scientific sense.” [Emphasis added, citations removed]

The discussion of the reviews limitations is especially worth noting:

“Our review has a number of important limitations. Although strong efforts were made to retrieve all RCTs on the subject, we cannot be absolutely certain that we succeeded. Moreover, selective publishing and reporting are other major causes for bias, which have to be considered. It is conceivable that several negative RCTs remained unpublished and thus distorted the overall picture. Most of the included RCTs that reported positive results come from China, a country which has been shown to produce no negative results. Further limitations include the paucity and the often suboptimal methodological quality of the primary data. One should note, however, that design features such as placebo or blinding are difficult to incorporate in studies of cupping and that research funds are scarce. These are factors that influence both the quality and the quantity of research. In total, these factors limit the conclusiveness of this systematic review.

In conclusion, the results of our systematic review provide some suggestive evidence for the effectiveness of cupping in the management of pain conditions. However, the total number of RCTs included in the analysis and the methodological quality were too low to draw firm conclusions. Future RCTs seem warranted but must overcome the methodological shortcomings of the existing evidence.”

In conclusion then, you may see a placebo effect from this treatment – though I suspect this is over rated as a therapeutic outcome6. You may also find yourself covered in bruises (though I hear they are painless – think of them as CAM hickies). So… Dubious premise with dubious benefit, same thing – different day.

Here are a couple of images for you to keep in mind…

Cupping3JPEG
cupping

Mmmmm, cupping goodness.

[UPDATE 30/5/12: Islam appears to support cupping, check out this completely unbiased arabic wikipedia article]

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Footnotes:

1. Can’t get away from TLAs

2. So many jokes spring to mind, I mean come on – “cupping”?

3. See this link for some scary science illiteracy around cupping. And here’s good old Wikipedia. And “blood stagnation” really? isn’t that gangrene or septicaemia or something?

4. Keeping in mind that a vacuum does not suck, high pressure pushes.  If I may geek out a bit here; hence one of my favourite exchanges from ST:TNG:

You were right. Somebody blew out the hatch. They were all sucked out into space.
Correction, sir, that’s blown out.
Thank you, Data.
A common mistake, sir.

- Riker and Data get precise about the physics of rapid decompression into the vacuum of space

5. Yeah, I know, it sounds made up.

6. See here, here and here.

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Filed under: Alternative medicine, Medicine, Questionable Techniques, Sciblogs, skepticism Tagged: Acupuncture and Chinese Medicine, alt med, alternative, Alternative medicine, altmed, CAM, cupping, Fire cupping, health, Health and Medicine, Science and Society, w4, wwww

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