Posts Tagged skepticism

I’m Certain That I Can Certainly be Wrong or Confidence and Memory, Is one a Good Measure of the Other? Darcy Cowan Mar 05

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A man is the sum of his memories, you know, a Time Lord even more so.

The Doctor, in “The Five Doctors”

ResearchBlogging.org
We all know that our memories can’t always be trusted, time and life tends to erode the confidence we have in our memories. At least that is the case for normal memories. We also tend to have special memories that seem to be burned into our brains, events in our lives that hold such significance that it feels like we are in some sense still experiencing the moment the memory represents. Such memories are described as being “flashbulb memories” as if at that moment as sort of metaphysical flash went off and recorded every detail of an event vividly in our consciousness.

This “flashbulb” effect allows us to confidently recall these events days, weeks or even years later. Memories such as this may be unique to each individual but there are commonly cited examples of shared flashbulb memories such as where a person was and what they were doing when they heard about the events of 9/11. In fact this event was used in an experiment to test the accuracy of this type of memory. At Duke University on September 12th 2001, 54 students recorded their memories of hearing about the incident as well as a recent everyday event by answering a series of questions about the events. Then either 1, 6 or 32 weeks later they answered another questionnaire and this was used to evaluate the confidence and consistency of the memories.

Surprisingly there was no difference in the consistency of memory recall for the flashbulb memory compared to the everyday memory but the flashbulb memory continued to be reported with a high degree of confidence while confidence in the everyday memory decreased. This implies that while we can be very confident in the details of a memory this is no guarantee of their accuracy. In fact other studies between confidence and accuracy of recall (for example in eye witness reports of crimes) shows the same lack of correlation between how confident we are and how accurately our recall matches events.

With regard to confidence in memories hypnosis is often put forward as a means of increasing the reliability of recall (even featuring on Mythbusters). There is evidence however that what actually happens is the hypnosis increases the confidence of the recall but is not effective at increasing the accuracy of the information gained through this process.

Finally, as a little reward for getting this far that is modestly related to this subject, here’s an interesting little test that is meant to measure your risk IQ based on your confidence in the answers to certain questions rather than on the answers themselves. (as previously blogged on by Alison over on Bioblog). So go take the test and feel free to report back your score.

References:

Talarico, J., & Rubin, D. (2003). Confidence, Not Consistency, Characterizes Flashbulb Memories Psychological Science, 14 (5), 455-461 DOI: 10.1111/1467-9280.02453
Smith, V., Kassin, S., & Ellsworth, P. (1989). Eyewitness accuracy and confidence: Within- versus between-subjects correlations. Journal of Applied Psychology, 74 (2), 356-359 DOI: 10.1037/0021-9010.74.2.356
Green, J., & Lynn, S. (2005). Hypnosis versus relaxation: accuracy and confidence in dating international news events Applied Cognitive Psychology, 19 (6), 679-691 DOI: 10.1002/acp.1133

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Filed under: Psychological, Sciblogs, Science, skepticism Tagged: Add new tag, Cognitive science, Duke University, Five Doctors, Intelligence quotient, memory, psychology, Review, Science, Science and Society, Social Sciences, Time Lord, Witness

New Zealand Pharmacy Ethics in Relation to Homeopathy in the Wake of Homeopathy Report Darcy Cowan Feb 24

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Earlier this year I wrote a post (along with fellow Sciblogger Grant) concerning the sale of homeopathic remedies in pharmacies. Monday night saw the release of England’s Science and Technology Committee’s “Evidence Check 2″ report on Homeopathy (also ably covered by Grant). One of the issues covered by the report is that of pharmacy responsibilities regarding sale of these remedies. Essentially the report recommended that sales continue but with adequate disclaimers stating that there is no scientific evidence that homeopathic products work beyond the placebo effect.

I see this as a compromise between commercial freedom to sell safe, though not necessarily effective, products and patient informed consent. It’s reasonable even if I disagree that it is ideal. Regardless, I thought it was a good excuse to look once again at our own pharmacies and see how the selling of scientifically unsupported remedies aligns with their professional responsibilities.

Enquiring into this area I was directed to the Pharmacy Council Code of Ethics for pharmacists. The Pharmacy Council seems to fill the function of professional association and regulatory body for pharmacists their functions including:

prescribe the qualifications required for scopes of practice within the profession, and, for that purpose, to accredit and monitor educational institutions and degrees, courses of studies, or programmes

and

consider the cases of health practitioners who may be unable to perform the functions required for the practice of the profession

Perusing the Code of Ethics (which may be found Here) I found a number of sections that I feel should preclude pharmacists from selling homeopathic remedies in good conscience. In order to try and represent the spirit of the code as accurately as possible I have included here both the relevant over-arching Principles that pharmacists should strive for as well as the Specific Obligations that I feel make my point (any emphases are mine).

The first principle is one of patient autonomy:

Principle 1: Autonomy
The pharmacist shall promote patient
self-determination, respecting the
patient’s right to understandable
information, privacy, and confidentiality

1.4 Professional services
Where the patient is seeking or receiving, from the
pharmacist or from other personnel for whom he or
she has responsibility, any professional service or
intervention, the pharmacist must ensure that the
patient is provided with credible, understandable
information about reasonably expected results,
outcomes or effects of the service or intervention, any
risks of receiving the service or intervention, and any
insufficiency of evidence about the efficacy of the
service or intervention, to allow the patient to make
an informed choice.

This to my reading implies that should pharmacists sell homeopathic remedies they are obligated to inform the patient of the lack of scientific underpinnings for the use of the remedy. One of the objections I have run into regarding the sale of these remedies in pharmacies is that they are commercial enterprises and are within their rights to sell products regardless of their medicinal value. This is partially true but these remedies are specifically sold to treat symptoms, not as entertainment, confection or cosmetic. The Code has several entries covering this aspect the first of which is:

1.5 Independent information
The pharmacist must ensure that their advice is
independent of personal commercial considerations.

Does this not imply that the sale of unscientific medicines should not be undertaken simply because it make financial sense? We will return to this point later.

The next Principle covers patient needs:

Principle 2: Beneficence
The pharmacist shall optimise medicines
related health outcomes for the patient
according to their concerns, needs,
cultural values and beliefs

2.2 Quality use of medicines
The pharmacist must provide scientifically-based,
unbiased medicines information to healthcare
providers, patients and the community in order to
optimise medicines related health outcomes.

My reading of this point leads me to understand that any information provided regarding pharmacy products must have scientific backing and moreover must not be biased by the pharmacist’s own views. Any such information regarding homeopathy must therefore be negative.

But, what if the pharmacist is not asked for this information? After all, I do not usually go in asking for a lecture if I already think I know what I need. I think the next obligation covers this instance:

2.8 Involvement in sale of medicines and other
therapies
The pharmacist must be involved and intervene in the
sale of any medicine, complementary therapy, herbal
remedy or other healthcare product whenever this is
necessary to ensure a reasonable standard of
pharmaceutical care.

Scientifically speaking homeopathy should not be considered to encompass a “reasonable standard of pharmaceutical care”.

The next Principle of relevance concerns fairness:

Principle 4: Justice
The pharmacist shall practise fairly and
justly and promote family, whanau and
community health

4.4 Commercial interests not to override good
practice
The pharmacist must ensure that commercial interests
are not permitted either to override the independent
exercise of their own professional judgement on
behalf of a patient or to compromise the standard of
care provided by them or to affect their cooperation
with other healthcare providers.

Once again the issue of financial gain over patient care is addressed with commercial interests coming off second best when the standard of care is concerned.

The next Principle is one I feel is of especial importance when the reputation of pharmacists in the wider community is considered and their self representation in the media is a factor (remember, they’re the health professional you see most often). This is trustworthiness, pharmacists are seen as, and promote themselves as, first and foremost medical professionals not business interests. The sale of homeopathic medicines is antithetical to this position and undermines their credibility in this regard, in direct contraction to the Code of Ethics as follows:

Principle 7: Trustworthiness
The pharmacist shall act in a manner
that promotes public trust in the
knowledge and ability of pharmacists
and enhances the reputation of the
profession

7.7 Non-medical goods and services
The pharmacist must not purchase or sell from a
pharmacy any product or service which may be
detrimental to the good standing of the profession or bring the profession into disrepute.

If the sale of scientifically worthless remedies such as homeopthy does not do this I don’t know what would, perhaps offering Therapeutic Touch?

Finally the Principle of dignity undermines the pharmacist’s sale of unsupported medicines:

Principle 8: Dignity
The pharmacist shall provide
information about professional services,
medicines and healthcare products in a
dignified manner without making
exaggerated or unsubstantiated claims

8.4 Medicines not ordinary articles of
commerce
A pharmacist must only participate in promotional
methods that do not encourage the public to equate
medicines with ordinary articles of commerce.

If the previous examples of why remedies should not be sold with the sole purpose of earning money for the pharmacist this should put that argument to rest. The sale of medicines (which many people consider homeopathy to be) should not be equated with ordinary articles of commerce. This puts the lie to arguing that these remedies are simply another commodity to be bought and sold like chewing gum regardless of therapeutic value.

8.8 Evidence of efficacy
The pharmacist must only promote to a potential
purchaser that any medicine, complementary therapy,
herbal remedy or other healthcare product associated
with the maintenance of health is efficacious when
there is credible evidence of efficacy.

This last obligation explicitly refers to promotion of a therapy to a patient by the pharmacist which I don’t think any reputable pharmacist would do for homeopathy but arguably the presence of the product in the store constitutes an implicit promotion of it to potential customers. This point goes back to the principle of trustworthiness, the public trusts the pharmacist to stock efficacious products. To include unscientific therapies among their wares undermines and betrays this trust. Perhaps I am naive to think so but I think the Pharmacy Council’s own Code of Ethics backs me up when I say that we should hold pharmacists to a higher standard than your average shop owner.

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Filed under: Alternative medicine, Medicine, Sciblogs, Science, skepticism Tagged: health, Health and Medicine, Health care, Herbalism, Homeopathy, homoeopathy, Medicine, Pharmaceutical drug, Pharmacy, Placebo, Science and Society

Facilitated Communication Case Fails to Deliver Darcy Cowan Feb 16

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The indefatigable Dr. Novella has been keeping track of the Facilitated Communication case of Rom Houben and via his blog I have learned that further investigation into the case has failed to deliver the goods.

As a refresher, late in November last year the news broke of a man who had been misdiagnosed as being in a Persistent Vegetative State (PVS, an essentially hopeless prognosis) being given a new lease on life thanks to modern diagnostic techniques and a practice known as Facilitated Communication (FC). While the mainstream media initially reported this news without a hint of scepticism (despite FC’s chequered past) it didn’t take long for doubts to be made known (for previous posts by myself and fellow Sciblogger Alison see here and here).

Dr. Steven Laureys, the neurologist whose work had thrust Rom into the limelight, only performed a few simple tests to convince himself of the communication method’s legitimacy. To his credit once the full force of the criticism was evident Dr. Laureys determined to return the question of FC’s validity with regard to Rom and conducted tests with the appropriate controls and protocols. These test subsequently showed that Rom was not the one communicating after all.

As detailed in an article by Spiegel Online:

Laureys has now carried out those tests, and his results hold that it wasn’t Houben doing the writing after all. The tests determined that he doesn’t have enough strength and muscle control in his right arm to operate the keyboard. In her effort to help the patient express himself, it would seem that the speech therapist had unwittingly assumed control. This kind of self-deception happens all the time when this method — known as “facilitated communication” — is used. (As a result, the things that Houben was attributed as saying to SPIEGEL for an article printed in November 2009 were also not authentic.)

In the more recent test, Houben was shown or told a series of 15 objects and words, without a speech therapist being present. Afterward, he was supposed to type the correct word — but he didn’t succeed a single time.

Those of us that were aware of FC’s history may not have been be surprised at this result but that does not mean we are not also saddened. I for one would have been happy to lose my cynical opinion of FC in order to keep the eloquent man who spoke movingly of having “Dreamed [him]self away” and his relief at being recognised as conscious; “I will never forget the day they discovered me, the day of my second birth.“. Speaking of which, what pray tell, has happened to the alleged speech therapist Linda Wouters who, it is now evident, was the true originator of the words gushingly attributed to Mr Houben by his family and the media? (And would have been behind the planned book ostensibly written by Rom.) Even if such deception was inadvertent (ie she truly believed that the words came from Rom) this surely casts deep doubt on her professional abilities, and possibly, integrity.

It must be a crushing blow to Mr Houben’s familiy to realise that they must start all over again in their attempts to communicate with Rom, remember that the speech therapist had been working with him for three years. Three years wasted. I hope his family can find the strength to carry on and the fortitude to be cautious about further improvements in the face of this disappointment.

[UPDATE: 19-02-10. Dr. Novella participated in a radio story about the case yesterday, the audio of which can be found Here. Interestingly Dr. Laureys was also interviewed and admitted that the facilitator may have been in the room during the first tests thus completely invalidating the results and subsequent tests were thwarted by "Rom" responding with answers like "you don't trust me" and "I don't want to do the test". A second facilitator had to be brought in in order for the final testing to be done. To my mind this makes the likelihood of Linda Wouters being an innocent participant here much less and that of conscious fraud much more.]

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Filed under: Hoaxes, Psychological, Questionable Techniques, Sciblogs, Science, skepticism, Warped Science Tagged: Add new tag, Facilitated communication, FC, Health and Medicine, persistent vegetative state, Rom Houben, Science, Steven Laureys

What is the Harm of Alternative Medicine? Darcy Cowan Jan 26

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Yesterday fellow Sciblogger Grant posted about homeopathic medications in pharmacies and questioned the legitimacy of reputable organisations selling such patent snake oil. The comments to this entry reveal one of the most frustrating aspects of speaking out against unscientific medicine and can be summarised thusly: “I’m far too sophisticated to be taken in by this stuff myself but other people seem to like it and if it doesn’t work then what’s the harm?”.

This attitude is ever present and comes from a reasonable starting point i.e. everyone is entitled to their own opinion and it’s not my job to save them from themselves. I can totally get behind that, usually. When it comes to ineffective medications of the alternative variety however this impulse though understandable is misguided and I’d like to put down a few reasons why I think so, some are speculative but I think the possibility of harm is great enough that they deserve to be considered.

For a start there may well be direct harm caused by using alternative remedies. As there is little to no regulation of these medications then no proof of safety or efficacy is required for sale. Witness the Zicam debacle last year regarding a “homeopathic” cold medication.

Further more the possibility for indirect harm (as multiply alluded to by Grant) may be significant. In case your imagination is not up to the task I will outline a few ways this may be the case. For instance the underlying principles of something like homeopathy are no only unscientific they are in direct contradiction of the last 200 years of scientific understanding. If they are used as the basis of reasoning about health then the results can be more dire than someone getting a bad nights sleep (in the case of the homeopathic sleep aid Grant used as an example).

Use of these therapies for minor ailments by the “worried and wonky well” may increase the possibility they they will be used for more serious health issues where the results could be deadly.

Look no further than the position statement of the WHO regarding the use of homeopathy in the treatment of Malaria and AIDs (among other things). The consequences of such thinking could be incalculable in terms of human suffering and spread of disease. But what’s the harm, right?

Additionally it is one thing for adults to make an informed choice for themselves based on available evidence filter through their particular world view but what about when this choice id forced on their children? The recent case of parents being found guilty of manslaughter over giving homeopathic remedies to their sick daughter is a terrible reminder that sometimes it is innocent children that pay the price for people’s gullibility. But, you know, what’s the harm?

When ostensibly professional medical providers such as pharmacists sell demonstrably irrational treatments they lend credibility to them that the average person uses to base decisions on. I mean the wouldn’t sell it if it didn’t work, right?

So while I understand the commitment to individual autonomy and freedom of choice that leads to the “What’s the Harm?” question, I fail to see how this means that fraudulent therapies must be let off the hook simply because there is a demand for them.

This has been a more vitriolic post than I normally write but what’s the point of a blog if you can’t vent once in a while?

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Posted in Alternative medicine, Medicine, Questionable Techniques, Sciblogs, Science, skepticism Tagged: alternative, health, Health and Medicine, Homeopathy, Medicine, Practitioners and Clinics, Science and Society, Scientific method

Persistent Vegetative States and the Problem with Facilitated Communication Darcy Cowan Nov 25

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If you read the print version of the NZ Herald today you would have seen featured on the front page a miraculous case of a man [Rom Houben] recovering from a persistent vegetative state and communicating with the world through a touch screen with the help of a carer. The topic of persistent vegetative state (PVS) is an interesting one and has received increasing attention in recent years. It would seem that this man was incorrectly diagnosed after an accident as being in a PVS while at the time of the accident it is more likely that he was in a minimally conscious state (MCS). A fine distinction sometimes and an excellent summary of the differences between the two diagnoses and the difficultly of accurately deciding between them can be found at the Science Based Medicine site.

Essentially a PVS is defined as the patient exhibiting no signs of consciousness, as with everything, whether you find something is dependent on how hard you look, simply opening a couple of drawers and glancing in the cupboard may not turn it up. In determining a case of PVS a more thorough search will reveal fewer legitimate cases as you may find extremely subtle signs of intermittent consciousness that will then flip the designation to a MCS. This process is also dependent on the sensitivity of the equipment used to perform the examination, the sophisticated scanning technology we have today simply did not exist 20 years ago. This equipment is the equivalent of rummaging around in the back of the couch and looking behind the fridge.

That this man was unfortunately diagnosed incorrectly is not in dispute, we have made significant advances in brain imaging technology that allows us to determine activity quite well. The issue here is the man’s ability to communicate so coherently and poetically. After so long without mental stimulation it seems bordering on the fantastic that this could be the case. When watching the video of the touch screen being used to bring this man’s thoughts to the world it seems very close to a practice known as Facilitated Communication, (this is actually confirmed in the TimesOnline article) this consists of a facilitator supporting the arm or hand of a subject ostensibly to allow them to then choose letters and words themselves which otherwise they would not have the strength or the focus to do.

The difficulty here is that this technique is very susceptible to the unconscious influence of the facilitator. In this way it can seem as though it is the patient communicating when in reality it is the thoughts of the facilitator that we are hearing. It is difficult to say for sure in this case, the video is ambiguous as to how much control the patient has over his movements so it is possible that we are indeed being exposed the inner world of a man with a very unique perspective but from the evidence shown it is equally plausible that the facilitator is the true originator of these words.

I would be interested in if any simple tests to determine the true origin of this material have been carried out, some of the suggestions I have seen elsewhere include swapping the facilitator for someone who does not speak the patient’s language, asking the patient questions that presumably only he would know, or asking the facilitator to leave the room while the patient is shown an object or told specific information and then seeing if this can be reliably produced after the facilitator returns. Any of these would help determine whether this man is truely communicating.

The print version of the Herald is mostly credulous in it’s coverage of this story but it appears that enough scepticism has filtered through the journalistic world that the online version has incorporated some of it. Better late than never.

[EDIT: The incomparable Dr Novella of the SGU and SBM has posted his take on this news item, as I hoped he would. Get the thoughts of a neurologist. Also had to add a link to this video from Dr.N's site that shows the patient typing with his eyes closed, simply not possible. Added Patient's name]

Posted in Psychological, Sciblogs, Science, skepticism Tagged: consciousness, Facilitated communication, Health and Medicine, MCS, Medicine, minimally conscious state, persistent vegetative state, PVS, Rom Houben, Science and Society

Beware the Demons!!!!!* Darcy Cowan Nov 02

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Catching up on blogs from over the weekend this one on the Center For Inquiry blog particularly stood out in the category of conspicuous displays of crazy. Beware of demons in your Halloween treats. I try not to do posts that are just “Look at this other Blog” but this one was too good.

*And all those exclamation marks, you notice? Five? A sure sign of someone who wears his underpants on his head.’ — Terry Pratchett,Maskerade

Posted in Psychological, Religion, Sciblogs, skepticism Tagged: center for inquiry, demons, halloween, Other

Simon Singh Granted Permission to Appeal, Darcy Cowan Oct 15

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This just in (sort of), for those following the unfortunate case of the British Chiropractic Association suing columnist and author Simon Singh for libel, Singh has just been granted the right to appeal original ruling on the meaning of his article. For those not aware of all of this see here for a rough run down of the back story.

See Jack of Kent’s blog for the legalese, thanks to The Lay Scientist for the breaking news.

Posted in Medicine, Sciblogs, skepticism Tagged: Health and Medicine, libel law, Science and Society, simon singh

Natural Health Expo(sed)? Darcy Cowan Oct 15

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Driving around Hamilton the past few weeks I couldn’t help but notice the signs sprinkled around the city for the “Natural Health Expo” which is to take place here this week end. As I perused the website for this event yesterday I was disturbed by the large number of anti-scientific “treatments” that will be showcased. Like my co-blogger Grant who has already posted on this, I was troubled by the amount of misinformation that will be leveled directly at consumers.

As I was pondering how to answer the bewildering array of AltMed that will be promoted I checked my email and found a great little article just published in Chiropractic & Osteopathy (made available through the open access publisher BioMed Central).

The paper, “Why do ineffective treatments seem helpful? A brief review” written by Steve E Hartman, looks at how practitioners and patients can fool themselves into thinking that ineffective medical interventions actually work. An excellent example of Evidence Based Medicine 101, Steve covers the cognitive biases that hinder our ability to draw logical conclusions in the medical sphere such as the Post Hoc, Ergo Propter Hoc logical fallacy, confirmation bias and cognitive dissonance. Also covered are explanations of how it can seem that a treatment has been directly responsible for improvement in a patient’s condition when it may not  have been.

The paper touches on disease natural history, which simply refers to how a particular malady might be expected to progress without treatment. Self limiting diseases such as colds, headaches and fatigue can be expected to get better on their own . If a patient is taking a treatment at the time, the treatment (rather than their own immune system) might erroneously be given the credit.

This combined with the overlapping arenas of the placebo effect and regression to the mean can be a powerful confounding factor when treatments are not being considered in light of scientifically controlled settings. The placebo effect is referred to frequently in common culture but regression to the mean is a less well known entity for the layman. Steven does a good job of explaining the concept, essentially people experience a variety of different intensities in their symptoms. Also they will tend to seek medical help when the symptoms become severe, knowing that the severity of the symptoms will tend to cluster about a mean value it is likely that whether treatment is sought or not the patient’s condition will tend to get better.

Thus the patient will feel relief and attribute that relief to what ever modality they are using at the time. Practitioners are not immune to these effects either and will in their practice see time and again that patients are getting better after their pet therapy is applied. In which case they will feel justified in proclaiming it works in the absence of confirming studies (or even in the face of disconfirming evidence).

The one aspect that I felt was missing from the paper, although it may have been obliquely implied, is the role of prior plausibility in evaluating treatments. Many modalities that will be on offer at the Natural Health expo are not only unusual they fly in the face of currently understood science. Scientific plausibility is our compass, without it we can become lost in the wilderness of fanciful ideas without any method of discerning the way forward. This concept is what separates Science Based Medicine from simply Evidence Based Medicine. The former takes the plausibility of a treatment into account when deciding the threshold of evidence needed before it can be considered effective. The later only measures outcomes and so is less able to distinguish true effects from chance outcomes.

Consider the following scenario: I claim to be able to influence the outcomes of coin tosses by virtue of what I had for breakfast on a particular day. If I have eggs then tails with predominate, lettuce produces more heads. Now without considering the plausibility of the setup we could run a trial, perform statistical analysis and find that my predictions are correct. But given that there is no good reason to suspect that my diet can influence a coin toss the positive is more likely to be because of chance than because of a real effect. In this case then a higher standard of evidence would need to be achieved than if I had said I could alter the probabilities be sticking a piece of gum to one side.

All-in-all though this a very nice paper and my complaint is a small one, given the probable readership of the journal the inclusion of plausibility may even have alienated those that might otherwise have been receptive to the other points presented. I recommend reading it for yourself, it is a very easy and informative read.

Posted in Alternative medicine, Medicine, Questionable Techniques, Sciblogs, Science, skepticism Tagged: Alternative medicine, altmed, Expo, Hamilton, health, Health and Medicine, Medicine, Review, Science and Society

Tragedy in the UK Darcy Cowan Oct 06

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Last week I presented the safety study for the Gardasil qHPV vaccine, after this a reader remarked that it was a relief to see as she was concerned by a story she had read. It revolved around the unfortunate case of a UK school girl who died shortly after receiving a vaccine. As the full story does not yet seem to have been covered adequately by local news I thought I would cover the salient points here.

Firstly there are two competing HPV vaccines in the world market, Gardasil produced by Merk and Cervarix made by GalaxoSmithKline (GSK).  Here in New Zealand we have opted for the Merk version of the vaccine while the UK uses GSK’s product. Cervarix immunizes against the HPV strains 16 and 18 which are implicated in development of cervical cancer while Gardasil also covers strains 6 and 11 which cause genital warts.

Thus the first point to be made in relation to New Zealand readers is that the vaccine this young girl was exposed to is not the same one that is being given to our population.

To summarize the facts about this case, as reported by TimesOnline on the 29th of September, 14 year old Natalie Morton died in hospital on the afternoon of the 28 of September. Preceding her death by several hours was her injection of the GSK HPV vaccine Cervarix, this proximity in time is the only evidence that linked the vaccine to the girl’s death.

Late on the 29th the news that Natalie had a “serious underlying medical condition” was reported in the Guardian. At this point it was still unclear (to the public) whether the vaccine was in any way related to Natalie’s death. Health officials were however preparing to continue the vaccinations that had been put on hold following Natalie’s perceived complications.

By the 2nd of October the full story was clear, as covered in Medical News Today, Natalie’s death was revealed to have been caused by a previously undiagnosed and apparently asymptomatic malignant tumour in her chest. The tumour was described as having heavily infiltrated her heart and gone into her left lung. The HPV vaccine was officially cleared of any causitive agency in her death, in fact according to Dr Caron Grainger, Joint Director of Public Health for NHS Coventry and Coventry City Council, it could have happened at any point.

This story, if the end had been less definitive, could have been a very powerful anecdote against the use of HPV vaccines, as comments both within and about the early news stories reveal. Some with a vested interest of discrediting vaccines will undoubtedly still try to use it as such, already there are attempts to label the cause of death as fiction.  This shows a deeply unsettling conspiracy mindset as well as disrespect to Natalie and her family in trying to use her tragic tale to further their own agenda.

Posted in Medicine, Psychological, Sciblogs, Science, skepticism Tagged: Cervarix, gardasil, health, Health and Medicine, HPV, Science and Society, Vaccines

Harriet’s Toolbox Darcy Cowan Sep 26

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Harriet Hall of the Science Based Medicine Blog gave a talk at the Skeptic’s Toolbox workshop at the University of Oregon in August. The power point slides for this talk are now up on the Skeptics Toolbox website for all of us to benefit from. Head over there and check it out, the talk was titled “Tooth Fairy Science and Other Pitfalls: Applying Rigorous Science to Messy Medicine.” and is full of info and humour. Highly recommended.

Posted in Medicine, Sciblogs, Science, skepticism Tagged: Science and Society

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