Ariadne

Improve mental models not metaphorical balls

Robert Hickson • Nov 02, 2020

• forecasting,
• foresight,
• futures methodology,
• geopolitical,
• international affairs,
• mental models,
• prediction

Writing in the magazine Foreign Affairs Scoblic & Tetlock highlight that the US spends over a trillion dollars a year on national security but is continually being surprised by events. This they put down to taking the wrong approach in thinking about the future. The tendency (not just in the US) is to extrapolate from (and so … Read More

Treating an infected president

Robert Hickson • Oct 04, 2020

• clinical trials,
• COVID-19,
• experimental drugs,
• medical,
• Pandemic,
• politics,
• President of the United States

News reports indicate that a range of therapies are being tried on the President of the United States to treat his SARS-CoV-2 infection. Two of these involve treatments that have not yet completed clinical trials. One was a cocktail of two neutralising antibodies. The second is an anti-viral drug.   Monoclonal antibodies The president was initially given a single treatment … Read More

Learning from techno-hype

Robert Hickson • Sep 07, 2020

• AI,
• Batteries,
• flying cars,
• futures thinking,
• hype,
• Transport,
• warfare

There have been several hyped technological developments in the last few weeks. Nothing unusual in that, but they provide useful examples of the need to adopt a critical mindset when considering the significance of developments and trends. Some futurists seem to just scrape the headlines for content without questioning the reports. That just feeds an uncritical … Read More

It’s complex

Robert Hickson • Jul 29, 2020

• adaptive governance,
• autonomous vehicles,
• complex systems,
• complexity,
• energy transition,
• foresight,
• governance,
• politics

An article in the EETimes suggests that advances in autonomous vehicles are not moving as quickly as expected because those working on them have confused complicated problems with complex ones. Engineering can only take you so far in complex worlds. Complicated systems tend to have fairly predictable inputs, processes and outputs. Complex systems (like city streets) not … Read More

The long and winding rivers of social change

Robert Hickson • Jul 06, 2020

• demographics,
• futures thinking,
• Planning,
• protest,
• social change,
• Values

 I like Andrew Curry’s succinct and insightful futures blog The Next Wave. His most recent post is about social change. In particular, the decadal-long periods usually required for changes in values. He highlights a 2016 paper by Inglehart and Norris, who examined whether economic … Read More

The “Great Reset”

Robert Hickson • Jun 07, 2020

• capitalism,
• carbon neutral,
• climate change,
• economic change,
• energy transition,
• Pandemic,
• societal change

The World Economic Forum has launched a new initiative that they are calling “The Great Reset”. Its purpose is to help “guide decision-makers on the path to a more resilient, sustainable world beyond coronavirus” At first glance it can look like virtue signalling by some of the world’s elite. The WEF’s … Read More

Building the bridges to the future

Robert Hickson • May 17, 2020

• change,
• climate change,
• futures thinking,
• government,
• Pandemic,
• strategy,
• Sustainability

In a previous post I noted that futures thinking usually tries to identify what people think will change and what they think needs to change. As lockdown constraints ease, we are seeing a lot of opinions about both. There is no shortage of shovel ready points of view and aspirations. Aspirations … Read More

A day at the pandemic races

Robert Hickson • Apr 27, 2020

• foresight,
• futures thinking,
• literacy,
• Pandemic

A friend came up with a useful analogy the other day. Much of the commentary about getting ready for opening up the lockdown seems like a set of racehorses at the starting gate. Different ideas and special interests in fine fettle, champing at the bit waiting for the gates to open. Meanwhile those thinking longer … Read More

Thrivable

Robert Hickson • Apr 20, 2020

• foresight,
• innovation,
• New Zealand,
• Pandemic,
• scenarios,
• Society,
• uncertainties

In my previous post I set out some simple techniques to help explore the future. Here I give a worked example. Most of the space I have devoted to one scenario, since that probably is the more interesting part for readers. Scenarios don’t predict what will happen. They are a method … Read More

Getting in futures shape 

Robert Hickson • Apr 03, 2020

• foresight,
• futures methodology,
• futures thinking,
• scenarios,
• strategy

“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.” Lenin Don’t we all know that feeling now. Prospect Magazine alerted me to this particularly apt quote. It is a much more evocative quote than Hemingway’s “gradually then suddenly” which is also doing the rounds with discussions of … Read More