Ariadne

After the Pandemic

Robert Hickson • Mar 26, 2020

• #COVID19,
• foresight,
• futures thinking,
• Pandemic,
• scenarios

It will pass. What happens next? Not immediately, but longer term. There are many opinions, fewer certainties. Will it “change everything!” as many confidently, and contradictorily predict? In this post I look at how foresight can help bound some of the uncertainties so you can more objectively consider the future.   Opinions and uncertainties Some current headlines … Read More

The futurist’s metaphorical menagerie

Robert Hickson • Mar 16, 2020

• black swans,
• complexity,
• coronavirus,
• COVID-19,
• foresight,
• futures methodology,
• futures thinking,
• Uncertainty

  Futures folk like animal metaphors for uncertainties. “Black swans” is a favourite one, and currently doing the rounds with opinions about COVID-19. The term “black swan”, popularised by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his 2007 book of the similar name, refers to unanticipated events with big impacts. However, COVID-19 and other epi- or pandemics aren’t black swans. They … Read More

The speeds of life

Robert Hickson • Mar 08, 2020

• foresight,
• futures methodology,
• History,
• pace of change,
• technological change,
• Victorian Era

  Many people think that the speed of change today is unprecedented. That’s just because we have short memories. Historians focused on Western civilisation, like Vaclav Smil, point back to the late 19th and early 20th Century when electricity, radio, the telegraph, telephone, phonograph, cars, planes, anaesthetics, and (a bit later) antibiotics emerged. Smil … Read More

Futures Fatigue and Futures Inertia

Robert Hickson • Feb 18, 2020

• Curiosity,
• foresight,
• futures,
• futures thinking,
• mindset,
• science fiction,
• Society

Nobody thinks about the next century anymore. That at least is Sci-Fi writer William Gibson’s observation (in this BBC 4 short interview, starting at 1:43:50 ). He calls it “Futures Fatigue”, but isn’t judgemental about it. Gibson notes that in the 20th century speculation about the 21st (and beyond) was common. Now the focus is much more … Read More

Science in the 20’s – part 2

Robert Hickson • Feb 02, 2020

• environmental scan,
• New Zealand Science Challenges,
• prediction,
• Science,
• Science policy,
• science system,
• systems thinking,
• trends

  Will the 2020’s be a case of, to borrow the words of the illustrious Martian botanist Mark Watney,  “sciencing the sh*t” out of the big problems facing us? In some cases yes. In some cases no, because it isn’t science that is missing. In many other cases, maybe. If we can improve the system. Read More

Science in the ’20s – part 1

Robert Hickson • Jan 15, 2020

• futures,
• prediction,
• Science,
• Science in Society,
• trends

  Outrageous, immoral or downright dangerous. That’s a description of the lifestyle of women “flappers” in the 1920s. Could it apply to science (and scientists) in the 2020s? Actually, you could look back at the past decade and see those, or similar terms, used about some science and scientists. Sometimes justifiably, most times not. Looking ahead ten … Read More

Transitioning

Robert Hickson • Dec 31, 2019

• Environment,
• foresight,
• future,
• futures methodology,
• geopolitical,
• governance,
• government,
• Society,
• Technology

Two things you can guarantee at this time of the year. Predictions about the coming year, and days at the beach (only lightly polluted, hopefully). Futures thinking is often seen as identifying the “next big thing” – technology and consumer trends. But that’s surface level futuring. Wave spotting. As a first step in raising awareness of change … Read More

Artificial Intelligence and You

Robert Hickson • Dec 10, 2019

• artificial intelligence,
• behaviour,
• bias,
• future of work

How should we think about artificial intelligence and the implications that it has for our work and leisure? There are many articles on artificial intelligence and its potential impacts on jobs, and the ethics of applications. These are important topics, but I want to focus on some less discussed aspects, which I covered in a recent presentation. Read More

1

A future of government

Robert Hickson • Oct 12, 2019

• culture,
• drivers of change,
• foresight,
• future of government,
• organisational change

  How could government evolve over the next decades? Reports of democracy’s imminent demise are greatly exaggerated.  However, satisfaction with political systems in many countries is low, so there is much to do for governments of all political stripes to improve relevance and trust. Digital technologies are seen as one … Read More

3

Climate change – determination over despair

Robert Hickson • Sep 19, 2019

• clean energy,
• climate change,
• Economics,
• Environment,
• geoengineering,
• Society,
• Sustainability,
• Technology

  There is much to be despondent about looking ahead to the consequences of a changing climate. But adopting Jonathan Franzen’s defeatism isn’t the best response. Reducing adverse impacts of climate change isn’t as simple as regulating automotive emissions, banning a pesticide of refrigerant, or changing to LED lights. But nor is it as … Read More