Ariadne

Building the bridges to the future

Robert Hickson • May 17, 2020

• change,
• climate change,
• futures thinking,
• government,
• Pandemic,
• strategy,
• Sustainability

In a previous post I noted that futures thinking usually tries to identify what people think will change and what they think needs to change. As lockdown constraints ease, we are seeing a lot of opinions about both. There is no shortage of shovel ready points of view and aspirations. Aspirations … Read More

A day at the pandemic races

Robert Hickson • Apr 27, 2020

• foresight,
• futures thinking,
• literacy,
• Pandemic

A friend came up with a useful analogy the other day. Much of the commentary about getting ready for opening up the lockdown seems like a set of racehorses at the starting gate. Different ideas and special interests in fine fettle, champing at the bit waiting for the gates to open. Meanwhile those thinking longer … Read More

Thrivable

Robert Hickson • Apr 20, 2020

• foresight,
• innovation,
• New Zealand,
• Pandemic,
• scenarios,
• Society,
• uncertainties

In my previous post I set out some simple techniques to help explore the future. Here I give a worked example. Most of the space I have devoted to one scenario, since that probably is the more interesting part for readers. Scenarios don’t predict what will happen. They are a method … Read More

Getting in futures shape 

Robert Hickson • Apr 03, 2020

• foresight,
• futures methodology,
• futures thinking,
• scenarios,
• strategy

“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.” Lenin Don’t we all know that feeling now. Prospect Magazine alerted me to this particularly apt quote. It is a much more evocative quote than Hemingway’s “gradually then suddenly” which is also doing the rounds with discussions of … Read More

After the Pandemic

Robert Hickson • Mar 26, 2020

• #COVID19,
• foresight,
• futures thinking,
• Pandemic,
• scenarios

It will pass. What happens next? Not immediately, but longer term. There are many opinions, fewer certainties. Will it “change everything!” as many confidently, and contradictorily predict? In this post I look at how foresight can help bound some of the uncertainties so you can more objectively consider the future.   Opinions and uncertainties Some current headlines … Read More

The futurist’s metaphorical menagerie

Robert Hickson • Mar 16, 2020

• black swans,
• complexity,
• coronavirus,
• COVID-19,
• foresight,
• futures methodology,
• futures thinking,
• Uncertainty

  Futures folk like animal metaphors for uncertainties. “Black swans” is a favourite one, and currently doing the rounds with opinions about COVID-19. The term “black swan”, popularised by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his 2007 book of the similar name, refers to unanticipated events with big impacts. However, COVID-19 and other epi- or pandemics aren’t black swans. They … Read More

The speeds of life

Robert Hickson • Mar 08, 2020

• foresight,
• futures methodology,
• History,
• pace of change,
• technological change,
• Victorian Era

  Many people think that the speed of change today is unprecedented. That’s just because we have short memories. Historians focused on Western civilisation, like Vaclav Smil, point back to the late 19th and early 20th Century when electricity, radio, the telegraph, telephone, phonograph, cars, planes, anaesthetics, and (a bit later) antibiotics emerged. Smil … Read More

Futures Fatigue and Futures Inertia

Robert Hickson • Feb 18, 2020

• Curiosity,
• foresight,
• futures,
• futures thinking,
• mindset,
• science fiction,
• Society

Nobody thinks about the next century anymore. That at least is Sci-Fi writer William Gibson’s observation (in this BBC 4 short interview, starting at 1:43:50 ). He calls it “Futures Fatigue”, but isn’t judgemental about it. Gibson notes that in the 20th century speculation about the 21st (and beyond) was common. Now the focus is much more … Read More

Science in the 20’s – part 2

Robert Hickson • Feb 02, 2020

• environmental scan,
• New Zealand Science Challenges,
• prediction,
• Science,
• Science policy,
• science system,
• systems thinking,
• trends

  Will the 2020’s be a case of, to borrow the words of the illustrious Martian botanist Mark Watney,  “sciencing the sh*t” out of the big problems facing us? In some cases yes. In some cases no, because it isn’t science that is missing. In many other cases, maybe. If we can improve the system. Read More

Science in the ’20s – part 1

Robert Hickson • Jan 15, 2020

• futures,
• prediction,
• Science,
• Science in Society,
• trends

  Outrageous, immoral or downright dangerous. That’s a description of the lifestyle of women “flappers” in the 1920s. Could it apply to science (and scientists) in the 2020s? Actually, you could look back at the past decade and see those, or similar terms, used about some science and scientists. Sometimes justifiably, most times not. Looking ahead ten … Read More