Ariadne

Futures Fatigue and Futures Inertia

Robert Hickson • Feb 18, 2020

• Curiosity,
• foresight,
• futures,
• futures thinking,
• mindset,
• science fiction,
• Society

Nobody thinks about the next century anymore. That at least is Sci-Fi writer William Gibson’s observation (in this BBC 4 short interview, starting at 1:43:50 ). He calls it “Futures Fatigue”, but isn’t judgemental about it. Gibson notes that in the 20th century speculation about the 21st (and beyond) was common. Now the focus is much more … Read More

Science in the 20’s – part 2

Robert Hickson • Feb 02, 2020

• environmental scan,
• New Zealand Science Challenges,
• prediction,
• Science,
• Science policy,
• science system,
• systems thinking,
• trends

  Will the 2020’s be a case of, to borrow the words of the illustrious Martian botanist Mark Watney,  “sciencing the sh*t” out of the big problems facing us? In some cases yes. In some cases no, because it isn’t science that is missing. In many other cases, maybe. If we can improve the system. Read More

Science in the ’20s – part 1

Robert Hickson • Jan 15, 2020

• futures,
• prediction,
• Science,
• Science in Society,
• trends

  Outrageous, immoral or downright dangerous. That’s a description of the lifestyle of women “flappers” in the 1920s. Could it apply to science (and scientists) in the 2020s? Actually, you could look back at the past decade and see those, or similar terms, used about some science and scientists. Sometimes justifiably, most times not. Looking ahead ten … Read More

Transitioning

Robert Hickson • Dec 31, 2019

• Environment,
• foresight,
• future,
• futures methodology,
• geopolitical,
• governance,
• government,
• Society,
• Technology

Two things you can guarantee at this time of the year. Predictions about the coming year, and days at the beach (only lightly polluted, hopefully). Futures thinking is often seen as identifying the “next big thing” – technology and consumer trends. But that’s surface level futuring. Wave spotting. As a first step in raising awareness of change … Read More

Artificial Intelligence and You

Robert Hickson • Dec 10, 2019

• artificial intelligence,
• behaviour,
• bias,
• future of work

How should we think about artificial intelligence and the implications that it has for our work and leisure? There are many articles on artificial intelligence and its potential impacts on jobs, and the ethics of applications. These are important topics, but I want to focus on some less discussed aspects, which I covered in a recent presentation. Read More

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A future of government

Robert Hickson • Oct 12, 2019

• culture,
• drivers of change,
• foresight,
• future of government,
• organisational change

  How could government evolve over the next decades? Reports of democracy’s imminent demise are greatly exaggerated.  However, satisfaction with political systems in many countries is low, so there is much to do for governments of all political stripes to improve relevance and trust. Digital technologies are seen as one … Read More

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Climate change – determination over despair

Robert Hickson • Sep 19, 2019

• clean energy,
• climate change,
• Economics,
• Environment,
• geoengineering,
• Society,
• Sustainability,
• Technology

  There is much to be despondent about looking ahead to the consequences of a changing climate. But adopting Jonathan Franzen’s defeatism isn’t the best response. Reducing adverse impacts of climate change isn’t as simple as regulating automotive emissions, banning a pesticide of refrigerant, or changing to LED lights. But nor is it as … Read More

Biology’s next revolution

Robert Hickson • Sep 09, 2019

• artificial intelligence,
• Automation,
• biology,
• future,
• hypotheses,
• scientific process,
• sociology,
• Technology

  A quarter of a century ago, when I thought my future was in science, automation and the idea of “big data” had just arrived for genetics. Automated sequencing, mathematical models, algorithms. Similar innovations spread to others areas of biology through things like better sensors, imaging systems, smarter radio tags for wildlife, data-loggers, and the like. Wet labs … Read More

Beyond the moon(shot)

Robert Hickson • Jul 17, 2019

• Apollo 11,
• clean energy,
• climate change,
• disruptive technologies,
• moon,
• National Science Challenges,
• renewable energy,
• sociotechnical

  There is a lot now being talked and written about the success of Apollo 11, and the Apollo space programme, half a century ago. The BBC podcast 13 minutes to the moon is fantastic. It tells well the story leading up to and during the 13 minutes that Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin descended to … Read More

The evolution of work and workers

Robert Hickson • Jul 09, 2019

• Employment,
• evolution,
• future of work,
• networks,
• skills

  If you have a job (say, driving a truck, or working in a warehouse) and that job gets automated, what are your future employment options? A recent analytical paper on networks by Jordan D. Dworkin looks at this situation mathematically. It brought to my mind studies of fitness landscapes … Read More