Ariadne

The elephants not in the room

Robert Hickson • May 09, 2019

• elephants,
• evolution,
• foresight,
• futures methodology,
• History,
• imagination,
• scenarios

Elephants can be an important futures symbol. The “elephant in the room” – also, unnecessarily pigmented, called a “black elephant” by some futurists – is the well known large and obvious issue that people refuse to address.  Then there is the parable of the “blind men and the elephant”, which … Read More

NZ scenarios for technological change

Robert Hickson • Apr 20, 2019

• foresight,
• future of work,
• futures methodology,
• New Zealand,
• scenarios,
• technological change

New Zealand’s Productivity Commission has developed draft scenarios to examine the future of work. The  scenarios are intended to describe a range of future impacts of technological change on the future of work, the workforce, labour markets, productivity and wellbeing. They will be used to test the effectiveness of different policies. The Commission is … Read More

Beyond the Robofarm

Robert Hickson • Apr 03, 2019

• Agriculture,
• farming,
• future,
• innovation,
• New Zealand,
• robotics,
• science system,
• Technology

It’s easy to get momentarily excited about robots on the farm, particularly if they are close to home, picking apples or herding stock. Robots have been rolling out onto farms elsewhere for several years and the pace is picking up, so NZ is in … Read More

Futures of work

Robert Hickson • Mar 27, 2019

• artificial intelligence,
• aurtomation,
• foresight,
• future of work,
• New Zealand,
• policy,
• robotics,
• scenarios,
• wellbeing

It’s hard to find a way through the forest of forecasts about the impact new technologies will have on work and life. Is it going to be terrible, awesome, same same, all of the above, or something else? The answer is no one knows, or can really know. However, it’s useful to explore the issues and consider what policy options … Read More

Future nation

Robert Hickson • Mar 22, 2019

• community,
• Economics,
• education,
• future,
• international comparison,
• nation,
• New Zealand,
• Opportunity,
• Society

Two centuries ago there was an allegory doing the rounds of England. A “New Zealander” – meaning a Māori  – at some latter date sat drawing the ruins of London. A sign that all great cities and civilisations eventually diminish and others take their place.   Detail from Gustave Doré. “The New Zealander” in London: … Read More

Revolutionary cycles

Robert Hickson • Mar 14, 2019

• foresight,
• History,
• policy,
• technological revolutions,
• Technology

Like business and politics, futurism and foresight are susceptible to short-termism, shallow historical perspectives, and a focus on parts not the whole. That’s not necessarily bad, but you need to recognise what perspective you are taking. Good foresight needs to balance the tension between detail and distance. As one interviewee noted for the Thinking the unthinkable report: … Read More

One-way thinking on a two-way street

Robert Hickson • Mar 03, 2019

• futurist,
• predictions

“One-way thinking on a two-way street” is a line from Ogden Nash’s poem “Oh, Stop Being Thankful All Over The Place.” I see it as particularly apt for a lot of the futures speculation and prediction going on all over the place. There is a rapidly expanding market of “futures pundits” who confidently predict what is going to come to … Read More

New tools, old mindset

Robert Hickson • Feb 19, 2019

• artificial intelligence,
• machine learning,
• models,
• Science,
• scientific method

The recent report that machine learning is “causing a science crisis”  – giving misleading results from data analysis – brought to mind something my PhD advisor said over 20 years ago.   “The bad news is all the models are wrong. The good news is the journal editors don’t know it yet!”   This was in the … Read More

The further future of healthcare

Robert Hickson • Oct 23, 2018

• big pharma,
• foresight,
• future,
• health system,
• healthcare

Following on from my last post, the UK has just released its Future of healthcare policy paper. It’s essentially a fluffy digital health information policy. No timelines and no systems-level thinking (apart from IT systems). Just add digital and other technological bits, encourage innovation, and it’s sorted is the short version. I found it a dispiriting read. It … Read More

Healthcare in the future

Robert Hickson • Oct 14, 2018

• disruption,
• future,
• healthcare,
• innovation,
• technology

When thinking about the future of healthcare, images of robot surgeons, predictive algorithms, nanoparticles and nanobots in your bloodstream, CRISPR, and wearable or ingestible sensors may come to mind. A future of big technological advances that help get rid of once acute conditions (like cancers, infectious diseases), and improve the monitoring and treatment of chronic ones (like heart … Read More