Robert Hickson

Robert Hickson has evolved from an evolutionist, looking backwards, into a futurist. Many of the skill sets are the same; looking for patterns, making sense of them, and trying to fill in the gaps. He's of the view that in New Zealand we don't do enough forward looking. The views expressed in his blog do not necessarily represent the views of his current employer (if any), or Charles Darwin.

Beyond the moon(shot) - Ariadne

Jul 17, 2019

  There is a lot now being talked and written about the success of Apollo 11, and the Apollo space programme, half a century ago. The BBC podcast 13 minutes to the moon is fantastic. It tells well the story leading up to and during the 13 minutes that Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin descended to the lunar surface on July 20, 1969 (While Michael Collins became the “loneliest” man on & off the world, orbiting the moon). It re-emphasizes the technological as well as the human wonder that made it possible. Inevitably too, commemorating Apollo 11 stimulates talk about the need for new figurative “moonshots.” These are ambitious long-term planetary-bound technological projects. Silicon Valley’s been a booster for moonshots for some time. Exhibit X: the “Moonshot Factory.” They take … Read More

The evolution of work and workers - Ariadne

Jul 09, 2019

  If you have a job (say, driving a truck, or working in a warehouse) and that job gets automated, what are your future employment options? A recent analytical paper on networks by Jordan D. Dworkin looks at this situation mathematically. It brought to my mind studies of fitness landscapes in evolutionary biology – when conditions change what are the new niches that you could move into? Dworkin notes that many studies of the risks of automation focus solely on the potential automatability of individual jobs. His paper looks not just at how likely particular jobs are to be automated, but the projected growth in other job fields and the similarity of skill sets between them. Given your current job, and its associated skill set, what new types … Read More

Robot dog meet robot stick - Unsorted

Jul 03, 2019

  Four years ago I wrote about getting too carried away with evolutionary metaphors for robots. But I can’t deny that we’re are seeing an increasing diversity of robotic forms and capabilities. The technological sophistication of high-end robotics, and the speed with which they are improving, is impressive. Check out SpotMini’s moves.   Although a better display of it’s capabilities, and those of it’s canid-like robo-compatriots, can be seen in this video: But equally, there are very interesting developments in other areas of robotics. Such as a soft robotic lion fish that uses fluid for both it’s mobility and power source, mimicking the multifunctional nature of animal circulatory systems. Or self-organising robot swarms. And then there is … Read More

Jill of all trades, and mistress of some - Ariadne

Jun 24, 2019

There are at least three inter-related factors shaping the nature of work – technologies aiding or replacing human workers; off-shoring (businesses sending work to other countries where labour is cheaper); and a shift from specialist to generalist skills. The latter is well discussed by Jerry Useem in the Atlantic. The US Navy’s been experimenting with “hybrid sailors” – not part man-part machine, or interspecies crosses, but employing crew who can do a range of tasks rather than just one role. That’s a practice spreading in the commercial world too. Many journalists, for example, now do their own photography, videography, blogging, and tweeting, as well as the other aspects of reporting. While new technologies can play a factor, other things are important too, such as the availability of workers and the increasingly dynamic … Read More

The robot strikes back - Unsorted

Jun 20, 2019

  No one seems to have much trouble with robots fighting each other – RobotBattles, BattleBots. People pay good money too to watch movies of good gals and guys with guns, metal presses, and vats of molten metal killing bad bots. We are now also seeing people attack robots. There are various reasons for this, including anger at them as “job takers”, but more generally classing them as foreign or “outsiders”. It’s an old human trait.  Reminiscent of the old hypothetical newspaper headline “Man bites dog!”, what’s going to be newsworthy soon is “Robot attacks person!” A video just released of a Boston Dynamics Atlas robot apparently hitting back at its human persecutors provides an interesting illustration. I, along … Read More

Game of Futures - Ariadne

May 27, 2019

No one needs telling that the Future is Coming. But there are different perspectives and attitudes toward it. Some see the future as “dark and full of terrors” – The machines are taking over; Democracy is dying; We are doomed! Others see nothing but light – Technological utopianism; Singularities; Becoming an interplanetary species; Or a delight for the “world of yesterday”. Still others resist facing up to change, or have an unrealistic hope that a wall, real or metaphorical, will keep it at bay. Sociological vs Psychological Stories I got on this train of thought after reading Zeynep Tufekci’s commentary, in Scientific American no less, about Game of Thrones. She notes that a sociological style of narrative is more powerful than a psychological one. A psychological narrative is one … Read More

The elephants not in the room - Ariadne

May 09, 2019

Elephants can be an important futures symbol. The “elephant in the room” – also, unnecessarily pigmented, called a “black elephant” by some futurists – is the well known large and obvious issue that people refuse to address.  Then there is the parable of the “blind men and the elephant”, which illustrates the misconceptions that result if we only focus on one part of a situation. A useful reminder when considering how narrow or broad you want to be when doing environmental scans or crafting scenarios. The “elephant and the rider” analogy can be used to help decision-making. It portrays the elephant as our emotional side and the rider as our rational side. Both need to work together to bring about change, a critical factor to … Read More

NZ scenarios for technological change - Ariadne

Apr 20, 2019

New Zealand’s Productivity Commission has developed draft scenarios to examine the future of work. The  scenarios are intended to describe a range of future impacts of technological change on the future of work, the workforce, labour markets, productivity and wellbeing. They will be used to test the effectiveness of different policies. The Commission is seeking feedback on the scenarios and policy questions. The first question their issues paper asks is “Are the scenarios developed by the Commission useful for considering the future labour market effects of technological change? “ My initial response is no. Scenarios are a way of looking at particular uncertainties about the future. Last month I wrote about some UK scenarios about the future of work.   The scenarios The two key variables … Read More

Beyond the Robofarm - Ariadne

Apr 03, 2019

It’s easy to get momentarily excited about robots on the farm, particularly if they are close to home, picking apples or herding stock. Robots have been rolling out onto farms elsewhere for several years and the pace is picking up, so NZ is in a sense catching up in terms of field applications. New Zealand has ag-related robotics companies too. RoboticsPlus, Scott, Pastoral Robotics, InvertRobotics, and Scion”s & the University of Canterbury’s tree climbing bot (under development) are examples. Processing rather than ambulatory robots are further along the commercialisation path.   Robots are a means not an end But it is false to think … Read More

Futures of work - Ariadne

Mar 27, 2019

It’s hard to find a way through the forest of forecasts about the impact new technologies will have on work and life. Is it going to be terrible, awesome, same same, all of the above, or something else? The answer is no one knows, or can really know. However, it’s useful to explore the issues and consider what policy options and business decisions could be appropriate to help shape the future. The UK’s Royal Society for the encouragement of Arts, Manufactures and Commerce (known as The RSA) has just released “The four futures of work” which provides a useful contribution to these discussions. They, along with Arup’s foresight group,  developed a set of scenarios for the UK in 2035. I would have left out “The” from their report title because I think … Read More