Matt Nolan

Matt Nolan is an economist with the forecasting team at Wellington-based Infometrics. He enjoys writing on a broad range of economic issues; however his focus is on the household sector including the labour market and consumer spending. Within Infometrics, he is responsible for forecasting the outlook for consumer spending and the labour market, and giving clients an idea of the risks around these forecasts – and what they mean for their bottom line.

Ex-ante concerns about moral hazard - The Dismal Science

Feb 22, 2013

Fascinating post by Stephen Williams, who is a great monetary economist.  In it, he goes through speeches at the Federal Reserve from September 2007 – a few months into the burgeoning credit crisis.  In it he shows that there was a debate between the views of “inherent instability” and “induced fragility” for what was going [...]

RBNZ gives its frame for the debate on manufacturing and the exchange rate! - The Dismal Science

Feb 21, 2013

Excellent.  The RBNZ has come out and discussed what is going on with manufacturing, what monetary policy can achieve, and the fundamental point that any “failure” stems from distortions in the domestic economy – not from flexible inflation targeting. Globalisation, outsourcing, and international supply chains, along with competition from low cost producers and rising global [...]

RIP Armen Alchian - The Dismal Science

Feb 20, 2013

It was very sad to hear the Armen Alchian passed away today. His views on the theory of the firm had a big impact on the profession, and on me as an individual.  I remember finding Production, Information Costs, and Economic Organization (pdf, summary) extremely useful as a student – it was probably the first [...]

Inflation stickiness, demand, and judging the success of monetary policy - The Dismal Science

Jan 30, 2013

I am still a fan of flexible inflation targeting.  I agree with Nick Rowe that explicit inflation targeting has made inflation outcomes “stickier” – and that knowing inflation is in a range of the inflation target is therefore insufficient for telling if the central bank is truly achieving “socially optimal policy”. For all the time [...]