Matt Nolan

Matt Nolan is an economist with the forecasting team at Wellington-based Infometrics. He enjoys writing on a broad range of economic issues; however his focus is on the household sector including the labour market and consumer spending. Within Infometrics, he is responsible for forecasting the outlook for consumer spending and the labour market, and giving clients an idea of the risks around these forecasts – and what they mean for their bottom line.

A different view of an inflation/price level target: No-monetization commitment - The Dismal Science

Nov 28, 2012

In New Zealand a strange thing is happening.  While other countries are looking at making their inflation targets more explicit following the crisis, and many more countries are debating whether to use a level or growth target (eg the NGDP target is essentially a price level target with some flexibility – while flexible inflation targeting [...]

More on describing the crisis - The Dismal Science

Nov 27, 2012

Rates blog posted another article by me, this time talking about why the GFC persisted.  So in the first one I laid down Fed actions as the catalyst, and in the second one I’ve primarily laid the blame on institutional confusion in Europe.  I’m not sure anyone will find this article, by itself, particularly enlightening. [...]

A hole in construction employment … really? - The Dismal Science

Nov 12, 2012

A big deal was made during the release of the Household Labour Force Survey (HLFS) of the decline in construction employment.  According to the HLFS, employees in the construction industry (including the self-employed) fell 4.0% from a year earlier in the September quarter – even as New Zealand’s second biggest city was supposed to be [...]

Institutional status report - The Dismal Science

Nov 09, 2012

The jump in unemployment, and the fact that the labour market has been weak for a long time, is leading to understandable angst.  The government has been blamed as you often expect, the world has been blamed as it should, and the RBNZ is increasingly being blamed.  I would like to cover off a few [...]