Shamubeel Eaqub

Shamubeel Eaqub (CFA) is a Principal Economist at the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research. His focus is in analytical frameworks to aid economic forecasting, commentary and incisive research into topical areas of economics.

Blogging vs sensationalism – Economic Bubble? - The Dismal Science

Apr 24, 2014

Social media frenzy over the news-quiet Easter weekend. Blooger at says NZ economy is headed for a bubble! Hat tip to Jessie Colombo for creating a media storm. While there are reasonable and often cited risks in his analysis, the substance is lacking. You will find any number of economists, including in the RBNZ […]

Aussie: home away from home? - The Dismal Science

Feb 26, 2014

Matt and I got talking about immigration off an earlier blog. He asked: “Could it be that Brisbane feels more at like home for people from the rural North Island and South Auckland than Southland or Auckland City do?” It got me thinking about why people migrate. I am currently reading “Exodus” by Paul Collier. […]

Big employment data revisions ahead? - The Dismal Science

Dec 11, 2013

The Household Labour Force Survey (HLFS) data has been volatile recently. It is survey based and is usually benchmarked to Census data. Sampling is also affected by Census results. The latest Census data suggest some big revisions ahead for many of the published HLFS indicators, including employment. Intercensal employment growth (compounding rate) in the Census […]

Macro data and are we doing better? - The Dismal Science

Nov 27, 2013

Statistics New Zealand launched their social indicators on 26 November 2013. It is a collection of data from the General Social Survey, which supplements various ‘hard’ economic data with ‘softer’ measures of perceptions. I was part of a panel that spoke briefly at the launch. Donal at Economics New Zealand has written about it already. The question […]

Inequality is natural - The Dismal Science

Oct 18, 2013

The moot in a debate organised and run by VILP (Victoria International Leadership Programme) students on 15 October 2013 was: “Is inequality natural?” I was on the affirmative team with Harry Berger and Even Bain, two smart and articulate Victoria students. We won the debate 49-43. Once you adjust for the home ground advantage to […]

LVR speed limits are here - The Dismal Science

Oct 08, 2013

RBNZ restrictions on high loan to value ratio (LVR) mortgages came into effect on 1 October 2013. They are already biting – with ASB pulling its high LVR approvals. By definition, the new rules will reduce high LVR borrowing growth, but not necessarily total borrowing (because banks are now incentivised to lend ‘traditional’ mortgages). The […]

Benefits of events, before and after the fact - The Dismal Science

Oct 03, 2013

Team NZ sadly didn’t win the America’s Cup. It would have been a good party in Auckland if we had. Just like the RWC was. With more than a little hubris, there were numerous media stories on the economic benefits of winning and hosting the America’s cup. Now it appears it was too early. In […]

Excitement over broken windows - The Dismal Science

Sep 03, 2013

Oliver Hartwich of the NZ Initiative revisits the broken window fallacy: “Natural disasters and wars never generate prosperity. They always destroy it, by definition.” He is absolutely right. It’s good to see this revisited. Even though the “seen benefits, unseen costs” principle was articulated by Bastiat in an 1850 essay. Wikipedia article on the broken […]