Matthew Hobbs, University of Canterbury and Lukas Marek, University of Canterbury
Omicron has already arrived in Australia and the question now is whether it will get to New Zealand during the summer holiday season and potentially affect plans for border openings.
New Zealand is currently planning to start opening its borders and allowing quarantee-free entry from early 2022, first to fully vaccinated New Zealand citizens arriving from Australia after January 16, and then for New Zealanders arriving from all other countries after mid-February. There’s already some discussion about whether this plan may have to be reviewed.
Omicron contains 32 mutations in the spike protein alone. These are mutations that may make the virus more transmissible and better at evading immunity. There is also some evidence to suggest it poses a higher risk of reinfection.
Other anecdotal evidence suggests more children are being hospitalised with moderate to severe symptoms with Omicron.
However, it is still too early to draw any firm conclusions. Data over the next few weeks will help determine the variant’s full impact.
Delta has taught us important lessons
New Zealand’s elimination strategy resulted in good economic performance, the lowest COVID-19 mortality in the OECD and increases in life expectancy. However, the emergence of the Delta variant forced us to abandon that strategy.
Perhaps most importantly, Delta also taught us that when new variants emerge, they do not stay in one place for very long.
FASTEST SURGE TO DATE—The #OmicronVarient is up swinging much faster in both new daily cases and positivity, than all previous waves in South Africa 🇿🇦, according to @nicd_sa data illustrated by @jburnmurdoch. This supports the faster transmission theory of #Omicron. 🧵 pic.twitter.com/BBdAsEGUk0
— Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) December 2, 2021
So, how prepared is New Zealand?
In the short term, New Zealand is well placed to deal with Omicron. Our strong border controls, testing and rapid genome sequencing mean that when Omicron arrives at our border, we can respond quickly and prevent community incursion.
It is unlikely it will be our unwanted guest this Christmas. Despite this, significant challenges lie ahead in the long term, including vaccination inequity and disruptions to routine healthcare.
Percentage of the double vaccinated
Click the button in the top right corner to expand the interactive map – then swipe down for Māori vaccination rates and up for the overall population to compare.
In several regions, including Auckland and Canterbury, 90% of the eligible population are now fully vaccinated. High vaccination rates may blunt the extent of future potential waves of infection, but significant inequities in vaccination levels remain.
So far, New Zealand has been luckier than other countries where concerns are growing about disruptions to routine healthcare. Delays may leave patients with treatable conditions suffering illnesses that can become fatal.
Although unlikely, should Omicron breach our border like Delta did, it will have to be tackled against the backdrop of trying to manage the current Delta outbreak.
Child vaccinations are set to start at the end of January. However, low vaccination levels are often in areas where health provision and hospitals are a long way away. This will need to be incorporated into the rollout strategy to ensure equitable childhood vaccination rates.
Looking forward to Christmas and beyond
The Auckland border will lift on December 15 and many are bracing themselves for a COVID summer. Calls for staycations have emerged as popular summer holiday spots such as Matai Bay close and iwi are asking people to stay away from some destinations.
Our analysis by regional tourism areas in the map below supports this. It shows most regional tourism areas have low vaccination rates, especially for Māori and Pacific peoples.
Click the button in the top right corner to expand the interactive map – then swipe down for Māori and Pacific peoples vaccination rates and up to compare to overall population.
As New Zealand heads into the holiday season, public health measures such as mask wearing, physical distancing, hand hygiene, contact tracing, case isolation and vaccination will remain essential.
Some experts have suggested the emergence of Omicron could be a result of low levels of vaccine coverage in developing nations.
The root of this is that the world isn’t doing enough to stop the spread of COVID-19.
While some countries, including New Zealand, have had domestic success at controlling COVID-19, wealthy countries around the world continue to hoard vaccines. This ultimately gives the virus more opportunities to replicate and mutate.
Matthew Hobbs, Senior Lecturer in Public Health and Co-Director of the GeoHealth Laboratory, University of Canterbury and Lukas Marek, Researcher and lecturer in Spatial Data Science, University of Canterbury