COVID-19

The small numbers problem: distinguishing good luck from good performance

Guest Author Jul 04, 2020

Dave Heatley Zero community transmission. Just a handful of active cases, all in quarantine. New Zealand is in an attractive situation, at least compared to much of the world. The situation could be robust and enduring – or it might be fragile, just one border incursion away from a “second wave”. How would we tell? COVID-19 just keeps changing and … Read More

Level with me

Guest Author Jul 03, 2020

Nik Green Much of the public debate about the response to the COVID-19 pandemic has focused on the extent to which government regulations have restricted personal and business activity. Oxford University Blavatnik School of Government Here in New Zealand, the question of when to change Alert Levels dominated the media and Parliament, with some arguing that the highly-restrictive … Read More

The sun is setting on unsustainable long-haul, short-stay tourism — regional travel bubbles are the future

Guest Author Jul 03, 2020

James Higham, University of Otago Unprecedented border closures and the domestic lockdown have paralysed New Zealand’s $40.9 billion a year tourism industry. In the process, the vulnerability of the sector to external shocks and the tenuous nature of tourism employment have been exposed. While New Zealand’s handling of the pandemic has been hailed as a global masterclass, and the … Read More

Two new COVID-19 cases in New Zealand, but elimination of community transmission still stands

Guest Author Jun 17, 2020

Shaun Hendy; Alex James, University of Canterbury; Audrey Lustig, Manaaki Whenua – Landcare Research; Michael Plank, University of Canterbury; Nicholas Steyn, and Rachelle Binny, Manaaki Whenua – Landcare Research New Zealand is one of a handful of countries where community transmission of COVID-19 has been eliminated. But with two new cases announced yesterday (June 16), we have learned … Read More

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New Zealand hits a 95% chance of eliminating coronavirus – but we predict new cases will emerge

Guest Author Jun 05, 2020

Michael Plank, University of Canterbury; Alex James, University of Canterbury; Audrey Lustig, Manaaki Whenua – Landcare Research; Nicholas Steyn; Rachelle Binny, Manaaki Whenua – Landcare Research, and Shaun Hendy There is now a 95% chance COVID-19 has been eliminated in New Zealand, according to our modelling, based on official … Read More

New Zealand’s COVID-19 Tracer app won’t help open a ‘travel bubble’ with Australia anytime soon

Guest Author May 21, 2020

Mahmoud Elkhodr, CQUniversity Australia New Zealanders finally have access to the government’s new tracing app to help people monitor their movements as lockdown continues to ease. As businesses can now open, the NZ COVID Tracer app allows people to keep a register of the places they visit. This “digital diary” can be used to contact people if it finds … Read More

Recession hits Māori and Pasifika harder. They must be part of planning New Zealand’s COVID-19 recovery

Guest Author May 20, 2020

Tahu Kukutai, University of Waikato; Helen Moewaka Barnes, Massey University; Tim McCreanor, Massey University, and Tracey Mcintosh As schools and businesses reopen and attention shifts to the longer-term repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic, it is critical that Māori be involved in decision making more equitably than has so far happened. The failure to include Māori in strategy discussions throughout the … Read More

Experts are back in fashion – now more than ever we need to question them

Guest Author May 18, 2020

Richard Shaw, Massey University Once upon a very different time, British cabinet minister Michael Gove sneered that “people have had enough of experts from organisations with acronyms saying that they know what is best and getting it consistently wrong.” But that was then and this is now. One or two obvious exceptions aside, we are all in … Read More