COVID-19

Immunity to COVID-19 may not last. This threatens a vaccine and herd immunity

Guest Author Jul 17, 2020

Nigel McMillan, Griffith University How is the world going to go back to the days when we could grab a coffee, see a movie, or attend a concert or footy game with anyone? Opinion suggests there are two options: an effective vaccine, or herd immunity via at least 60-80% of people becoming infected. Either one of these options requires that … Read More

How New Zealand could keep eliminating coronavirus at its border for months to come, even as the global pandemic worsens

Guest Author Jul 17, 2020

Michael Plank, University of Canterbury; Alex James, University of Canterbury; Audrey Lustig, Manaaki Whenua – Landcare Research; Nicholas Steyn; Rachelle Binny, Manaaki Whenua – Landcare Research, and Shaun Hendy Stringent border controls and mandatory quarantine give New Zealand a good chance to remain free of COVID-19 for months to come, according to our latest modelling. It’s been 76 … Read More

Lockdown, relax, repeat: how cities across the globe are going back to coronavirus restrictions

Guest Author Jul 15, 2020

Maximilian de Courten, Victoria University; Bojana Klepac Pogrmilovic, Victoria University, and Rosemary V Calder, Victoria University The World Health Organisation reported more than 230,000 new COVID-19 cases on Sunday — the world’s largest daily increase during the pandemic. The surge has forced governments in many places across the world to order new lockdowns. This includes Melbourne, which is back … Read More

The small numbers problem: distinguishing good luck from good performance

Guest Author Jul 04, 2020

Dave Heatley Zero community transmission. Just a handful of active cases, all in quarantine. New Zealand is in an attractive situation, at least compared to much of the world. The situation could be robust and enduring – or it might be fragile, just one border incursion away from a “second wave”. How would we tell? COVID-19 just keeps changing and … Read More

Level with me

Guest Author Jul 03, 2020

Nik Green Much of the public debate about the response to the COVID-19 pandemic has focused on the extent to which government regulations have restricted personal and business activity. Oxford University Blavatnik School of Government Here in New Zealand, the question of when to change Alert Levels dominated the media and Parliament, with some arguing that the highly-restrictive … Read More

The sun is setting on unsustainable long-haul, short-stay tourism — regional travel bubbles are the future

Guest Author Jul 03, 2020

James Higham, University of Otago Unprecedented border closures and the domestic lockdown have paralysed New Zealand’s $40.9 billion a year tourism industry. In the process, the vulnerability of the sector to external shocks and the tenuous nature of tourism employment have been exposed. While New Zealand’s handling of the pandemic has been hailed as a global masterclass, and the … Read More

Two new COVID-19 cases in New Zealand, but elimination of community transmission still stands

Guest Author Jun 17, 2020

Shaun Hendy; Alex James, University of Canterbury; Audrey Lustig, Manaaki Whenua – Landcare Research; Michael Plank, University of Canterbury; Nicholas Steyn, and Rachelle Binny, Manaaki Whenua – Landcare Research New Zealand is one of a handful of countries where community transmission of COVID-19 has been eliminated. But with two new cases announced yesterday (June 16), we have learned … Read More

New Zealand hits a 95% chance of eliminating coronavirus – but we predict new cases will emerge

Guest Author Jun 05, 2020

Michael Plank, University of Canterbury; Alex James, University of Canterbury; Audrey Lustig, Manaaki Whenua – Landcare Research; Nicholas Steyn; Rachelle Binny, Manaaki Whenua – Landcare Research, and Shaun Hendy There is now a 95% chance COVID-19 has been eliminated in New Zealand, according to our modelling, based on official … Read More