Well March 20 has come and gone and Christchurch hasn’t disappeared in a cloud of dust, although the 5.1 magnitude aftershock at 9.47 pm apparently has some Ken Ring fans convinced he was right.
(Seriously a 5.1 aftershock is not an event that will go down in history as important. I don’t get out of my chair for anything under a 5.5!)
Anyhow, I had a few good guesses, oops sorry predictions for the time of the largest aftershock with most people targeting the evening. (I think this is when quakes are more noticable therefore more memorable).
The closest was B Dolamore with a prediction of 9.35 pm, just 12 minutes off the time of the 5.1 aftershock.
There were several very amusing predictions/predictive methods including close observations of the movement of silt and strikes by meteors. However, the winner would have to be M Bicknell whose prediction is based on the alignment of the cats and dogs in her household so that:
“Since then I have noted their positions relative to each other before during and after each aftershock, plus or minus a couple of hundred metres as they often move as I’m trying to measure the distances. After carefully monitoring this I came up with a way of predicting their alignments based on previous alignments and some other factors of which are far too complex to go into as you would need at least a degree in feline/canine bodily alignment and their effect on the tectonic plates before you could even begin to fathom the complexities of it. I now believe that I have perfected my prediction method and this is why I can give such a precise prediction for the 20th. If you are in any doubt then observe any cats and dogs in your local area starting at 1.11pm, if you watch closely enough you will see the changes happening as they slowly align over the following 2 hours and 22 minutes.”
I’ll be in contact with the winners soon to sort out your Whitcoulls gift voucher (just kidding!!!), I mean your fishpond/amazon credit.
Thanks to all who entered, and speaking of feline alignment – check out the following.