Tagged: border

The small numbers problem: distinguishing good luck from good performance - COVID-19

Guest Author Jul 04, 2020

Dave Heatley Zero community transmission. Just a handful of active cases, all in quarantine. New Zealand is in an attractive situation, at least compared to much of the world. The situation could be robust and enduring – or it might be fragile, just one border incursion away from a “second wave”. How would we tell? COVID-19 just keeps changing and … Read More

Why I’m confident there is no community transmission in NZ - Infectious Thoughts

Siouxsie Wiles Jun 25, 2020

Both the leader of the opposition Todd Muller and University of Auckland Professor Des Gorman have gone on the record as saying they suspect Covid-19 is spreading in the community in New Zealand once again. Let me explain why I don’t agree with them. As best I can tell there are two reasons Muller and Gorman have jumped to the … Read More

Why are we seeing these new cases of Covid-19 in New Zealand? - Infectious Thoughts

Siouxsie Wiles Jun 23, 2020

After weeks of no new cases of Covid-19, in the last week we’ve recorded nine. That’s sounds pretty scary, but here’s why there’s no reason to panic. For weeks now, almost every day there have been over 100,000 new confirmed cases of Covid-19 around the world. On two days last week that number topped 170,000. Sadly, it looks like the … Read More