Tagged: forecasting

Uncertain predictions - Ariadne

Robert Hickson • Feb 19, 2015 •

• forecasting,
• future,
• prediction

“Active open-minded thinking” and “massive ignoramus”. Those are views on what makes a good forecaster according to two  “super-forecasters” from Philip Tetlock’s and IARPA’s Good Judgment Project.  It also helps if you forecast as part of a team with other good forecasters. But some things are more predictable than others. Michael Burnam-Fink, in a paper in … Read More

Forecasting energy needs and sources - Ariadne

Robert Hickson • Sep 23, 2013 •

• energy,
• Environment,
• forecasting,
• oil

Peak oil is less a topic of discussion now that shale oil in North America has been fracked open. (Click to view larger image) A range of organisations are predicting increased use of oil, as well as natural gas and coal, over the coming decades. The US Energy Information Agency (part of the Department of … Read More

Beyond 2020 - misc.ience

Aimee Whitcroft • Nov 29, 2011 •

• forecasting,
• foresight,
• FutureWorld,
• futurism,
• mindbullets

I admit it, I’m a sucker for future scenarios. No, not necessarily because I think they’re accurate (or expect them to be!), but because they can exercise the mind wonderfully, reveal much about our present.  The best science-fiction is like this, too 🙂 And yes, sometimes, they can absolutely be useful in preparing for … Read More

TOSP Episode 7: October 25th 2011 - The Sciblogs Podcast

Aimee Whitcroft • Oct 25, 2011 •

• aimee whitcroft,
• autism,
• biomimicry,
• boks,
• Brightsparks,
• carbon nano-onions,
• Chelfyn Baxter,
• Dance Your PhD,
• data centres,
• Default Mode Network,
• Economics,
• Elf Eldridge,
• flight,
• forecasting,
• Iceland,
• imaging,
• internet,
• just so science,
• milk,
• misc.ience,
• NASA,
• renewable energy,
• spider silk,
• Superconductivity,
• Tell Us A Story,
• the g33k show,
• The Official Sciblogs Podcast,
• TOSP,
• Twitter,
• Type 1.5 superconductivity,
• zoning out

Featuring (very) bright sparks, biomimicry and flight, Dance Your PhD, NASA inventions, carbon nano-onions, Iceland’s renewable internet, spider silk, zoned-out rats, forecasting with Twitter, autistic facial characteristics, a new superconductivity, the geek book list, Tell Us A Story 2011 winners, and the economics of milk. Also featuring some Interesting Things, including a comment on a paper showing how cats lap … Read More

Energy Forecasts - Ariadne

Robert Hickson • Sep 30, 2011 •

• Economy,
• energy,
• forecasting,
• Fossil Fuels,
• renewable energy

The US’s Energy Information Administration has released its International Energy Outlook 2011. This forecasts energy demand out to 2035.  A caveat is that their assessments assume no new policy or legislative initiatives being introduced that could affect energy markets. Drivers: Economic development, technological innovation Trends: Increasing energy consumption, diversifying energy supplies, exploitation of new sources of fossil fuels … Read More