Guest Author • Jun 04, 2021 •
Shane Cronin, University of Auckland and David Dempsey, University of Canterbury While today’s pre-trial hearing over the Whakaari White Island tragedy revealed most of the 13 parties charged have yet to enter pleas, there is no disputing the basic facts. The December 9 2019 eruption struck when 47 people were on the small island; 22 people died … Read More
Guest Author • Nov 11, 2020 •
Sally Potter, GNS Science November 12 marks the 50th anniversary of Cyclone Bhola, the deadliest weather event on modern record. When this storm made landfall over Bangladesh, it coincided with a lunar high tide. The subsequent storm surge killed at least 300,000 people. This month also marks the start of the cyclone season in the Pacific. The outlook … Read More
Robert Hickson • Nov 02, 2020 •
Writing in the magazine Foreign Affairs Scoblic & Tetlock highlight that the US spends over a trillion dollars a year on national security but is continually being surprised by events. This they put down to taking the wrong approach in thinking about the future. The tendency (not just in the US) is to extrapolate from (and so … Read More
Dave Heatley • Jul 25, 2019 •
Skills scarcity is great. At least when it’s your skills in demand. Scarce skills command a wage premium and those with them are much less likely to face unemployment. (Employers are much less fond of skills scarcity, but they do benefit from skills gluts.) But, when considering training or retraining, how do you pick skills and occupations that will be … Read More
Dave Heatley • Jul 17, 2019 •
The nice thing about forecasts is that you have so many to choose from.1 For the weather, you can choose between MetService, metvuw, yr, the Weather Channel and many others. It’s best if they agree to guarantee a perfect day in the mountains… … Read More
Robert Hickson • Feb 19, 2015 •
“Active open-minded thinking” and “massive ignoramus”. Those are views on what makes a good forecaster according to two “super-forecasters” from Philip Tetlock’s and IARPA’s Good Judgment Project. It also helps if you forecast as part of a team with other good forecasters. But some things are more predictable than others. Michael Burnam-Fink, in a paper in … Read More
Robert Hickson • Sep 23, 2013 •
Peak oil is less a topic of discussion now that shale oil in North America has been fracked open. (Click to view larger image) A range of organisations are predicting increased use of oil, as well as natural gas and coal, over the coming decades. The US Energy Information Agency (part of the Department of … Read More
Aimee Whitcroft • Nov 29, 2011 •
I admit it, I’m a sucker for future scenarios. No, not necessarily because I think they’re accurate (or expect them to be!), but because they can exercise the mind wonderfully, reveal much about our present. The best science-fiction is like this, too 🙂 And yes, sometimes, they can absolutely be useful in preparing for … Read More
Aimee Whitcroft • Oct 25, 2011 •
Featuring (very) bright sparks, biomimicry and flight, Dance Your PhD, NASA inventions, carbon nano-onions, Iceland’s renewable internet, spider silk, zoned-out rats, forecasting with Twitter, autistic facial characteristics, a new superconductivity, the geek book list, Tell Us A Story 2011 winners, and the economics of milk. Also featuring some Interesting Things, including a comment on a paper showing how cats lap … Read More
Robert Hickson • Sep 30, 2011 •
The US’s Energy Information Administration has released its International Energy Outlook 2011. This forecasts energy demand out to 2035. A caveat is that their assessments assume no new policy or legislative initiatives being introduced that could affect energy markets. Drivers: Economic development, technological innovation Trends: Increasing energy consumption, diversifying energy supplies, exploitation of new sources of fossil fuels … Read More