Tagged: forecasting

Uncertain predictions - Ariadne

Robert Hickson Feb 19, 2015

“Active open-minded thinking” and “massive ignoramus”. Those are views on what makes a good forecaster according to two  “super-forecasters” from Philip Tetlock’s and IARPA’s Good Judgment Project.  It also helps if you forecast as part of a team with other good forecasters. But some things are more predictable than others. Michael Burnam-Fink, in a paper in … Read More

TOSP Episode 7: October 25th 2011 - The Sciblogs Podcast

Aimee Whitcroft Oct 25, 2011

Featuring (very) bright sparks, biomimicry and flight, Dance Your PhD, NASA inventions, carbon nano-onions, Iceland’s renewable internet, spider silk, zoned-out rats, forecasting with Twitter, autistic facial characteristics, a new superconductivity, the geek book list, Tell Us A Story 2011 winners, and the economics of milk. Also featuring some Interesting Things, including a comment on a paper showing how cats lap … Read More

Energy Forecasts - Ariadne

Robert Hickson Sep 30, 2011

The US’s Energy Information Administration has released its International Energy Outlook 2011. This forecasts energy demand out to 2035.  A caveat is that their assessments assume no new policy or legislative initiatives being introduced that could affect energy markets. Drivers: Economic development, technological innovation Trends: Increasing energy consumption, diversifying energy supplies, exploitation of new sources of fossil fuels … Read More