Tagged: forecasting

New cyclone forecasts: why impacts should be the focus of hazardous weather warnings - Guest Work

Guest Author Nov 11, 2020

Sally Potter, GNS Science November 12 marks the 50th anniversary of Cyclone Bhola, the deadliest weather event on modern record. When this storm made landfall over Bangladesh, it coincided with a lunar high tide. The subsequent storm surge killed at least 300,000 people. This month also marks the start of the cyclone season in the Pacific. The outlook … Read More

Improve mental models not metaphorical balls - Ariadne

Robert Hickson Nov 02, 2020

Writing in the magazine Foreign Affairs Scoblic & Tetlock highlight that the US spends over a trillion dollars a year on national security but is continually being surprised by events. This they put down to taking the wrong approach in thinking about the future. The tendency (not just in the US) is to extrapolate from (and so … Read More

Uncertain predictions - Ariadne

Robert Hickson Feb 19, 2015

“Active open-minded thinking” and “massive ignoramus”. Those are views on what makes a good forecaster according to two  “super-forecasters” from Philip Tetlock’s and IARPA’s Good Judgment Project.  It also helps if you forecast as part of a team with other good forecasters. But some things are more predictable than others. Michael Burnam-Fink, in a paper in … Read More

TOSP Episode 7: October 25th 2011 - The Sciblogs Podcast

Aimee Whitcroft Oct 25, 2011

Featuring (very) bright sparks, biomimicry and flight, Dance Your PhD, NASA inventions, carbon nano-onions, Iceland’s renewable internet, spider silk, zoned-out rats, forecasting with Twitter, autistic facial characteristics, a new superconductivity, the geek book list, Tell Us A Story 2011 winners, and the economics of milk. Also featuring some Interesting Things, including a comment on a paper showing how cats lap … Read More

Energy Forecasts - Ariadne

Robert Hickson Sep 30, 2011

The US’s Energy Information Administration has released its International Energy Outlook 2011. This forecasts energy demand out to 2035.  A caveat is that their assessments assume no new policy or legislative initiatives being introduced that could affect energy markets. Drivers: Economic development, technological innovation Trends: Increasing energy consumption, diversifying energy supplies, exploitation of new sources of fossil fuels … Read More