Eric Crampton • Oct 11, 2014 •
There will soon be NGDP futures markets in which traders can buy and sell contracts paying out based on American quarterly nominal GDP. Scott Sumner's long advocated these kinds of markets for macroeconomic forecasting and as target for the Federal Reserve: the Fed should be targeting something like a 5% growth rate.But the markets won't be based in America. Read More
Eric Crampton • Feb 12, 2014 •
iPredict has a contract that pays $0.10 for every 1% of the vote earned by the yet-to-be-formed Kim DotCom Internet Party. The contract's price then is the market's expectation of the party's vote share.But not anymore.If #InternetParty won't poll 5+% before ballot papers are printed we'll self destruct & put our weight behind a party adopting our policies.— … Read More
Eric Crampton • Mar 02, 2013 •
Australia, Australia, we love your political theatre, Australia, amen. iPredict was a bit overloaded during the surprise Labor leadership vote yesterday - it probably saved me from losing money. But it's fun to see what the markets thought of the whol... Read More
Eric Crampton • Oct 03, 2012 •
I lost about $300 on iPredict a little over a month ago. I had really strong expectations that the Government's bill proposing a split alcohol purchase age was going to pass. Standard rules of order seemed to ensure that the government's bill would pas... Read More