Robert Hickson • Apr 20, 2020 •
In my previous post I set out some simple techniques to help explore the future. Here I give a worked example. Most of the space I have devoted to one scenario, since that probably is the more interesting part for readers. Scenarios don’t predict what will happen. They are a method … Read More
Robert Hickson • Apr 03, 2020 •
“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.” Lenin Don’t we all know that feeling now. Prospect Magazine alerted me to this particularly apt quote. It is a much more evocative quote than Hemingway’s “gradually then suddenly” which is also doing the rounds with discussions of … Read More
Robert Hickson • Mar 26, 2020 •
It will pass. What happens next? Not immediately, but longer term. There are many opinions, fewer certainties. Will it “change everything!” as many confidently, and contradictorily predict? In this post I look at how foresight can help bound some of the uncertainties so you can more objectively consider the future. Opinions and uncertainties Some current headlines … Read More
Robert Hickson • May 27, 2019 •
No one needs telling that the Future is Coming. But there are different perspectives and attitudes toward it. Some see the future as “dark and full of terrors” – The machines are taking over; Democracy is dying; We are doomed! Others see nothing but light – Technological utopianism; Singularities; Becoming an interplanetary species; Or a delight for … Read More
Robert Hickson • May 09, 2019 •
Elephants can be an important futures symbol. The “elephant in the room” – also, unnecessarily pigmented, called a “black elephant” by some futurists – is the well known large and obvious issue that people refuse to address. Then there is the parable of the “blind men and the elephant”, which … Read More
Robert Hickson • Apr 20, 2019 •
New Zealand’s Productivity Commission has developed draft scenarios to examine the future of work. The scenarios are intended to describe a range of future impacts of technological change on the future of work, the workforce, labour markets, productivity and wellbeing. They will be used to test the effectiveness of different policies. The Commission is … Read More
Robert Hickson • Mar 27, 2019 •
It’s hard to find a way through the forest of forecasts about the impact new technologies will have on work and life. Is it going to be terrible, awesome, same same, all of the above, or something else? The answer is no one knows, or can really know. However, it’s useful to explore the issues and consider what policy options … Read More
Robert Hickson • May 30, 2016 •
Australia’s Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) has a futures group. They’ve just released a report called Australia 2030: navigating our uncertain future. There are some nice aspects to the report, and it is good to see rigorous futures techniques being applied in our hemisphere. But, overall, I was underwhelmed. The report is based around four scenarios: Digital … Read More
Robert Hickson • Nov 04, 2015 •
It’s good to see more futuring emerging in NZ. A few weeks ago, the Chartered Accountants Australia & New Zealand released a report on the risk to jobs of automation. I’ve previously noted the research from Oxford University that this is based on, as well as the caution that it’s a relatively simplistic model … Read More
Robert Hickson • Dec 07, 2014 •
Thirty billion, 60 billion, one billion, 10 billion. Those are some of the numbers from the Ministry of Transport’s recent Future Demand project. 30 billion kilometres travelled a year on New Zealand roads (excluding trucks) – that’s 100 round trips to the sun. $60 billion is the cost of the road network (that’s about four times the total … Read More