Guest Author • Jul 12, 2019 •
John MacCormick There’s an old joke about an economist searching for her keys under a street lamp. She lost them somewhere up the street in the dark, but it’s easier to look where the light’s shining.1 John MacCormick If that still has any amusement value, it’s because there’s still some truth in it. When searching for the keys to … Read More
Guest Author • Jul 11, 2019 •
Tim Maddock Why don’t people move as often as economists expect? Some regions in New Zealand have much higher rates of unemployment than others. These differences are persistent, with little change over the past thirty years. Why might this be? If workers seek higher pay (and unemployment is painful) then we would expect workers in struggling regions to … Read More
Dave Heatley • Jun 21, 2019 •
I only know one economist joke. A plane carrying economists plummets towards the ground after its engines fail. In a quiet cabin, an economist pipes up: “in my model the demand for parachutes just peaked, and the market will increase supply”. This caricature of economists — withdrawn, unemotional and overly trusting in simplistic models — has at least a grain … Read More
Guest Author • May 17, 2019 •
Predicting technology is the first step towards predicting the labour market impacts of technology. But history tells us that technology prediction is like a game of chance. Make enough predictions and you’re sure to get some right… and many wrong, sometimes spectacularly. The president of IBM, Thomas Watson, purportedly said in 1943 that “I think there is a world market … Read More
Dave Heatley • May 13, 2019 •
This graphic caught my eye. It accompanies the article Robots and Us in today’s Otago Daily Times. Things look pretty dire for accountants and auditors – 94% of jobs automated within five years. Time to start night classes and retrain. Becoming a software developer looks a safe bet – only 4% of jobs will be … Read More
Jean Balchin • Jul 10, 2017 •
The public’s preconceptions about psychosis makes it rather difficult for those living with the condition to gain employment and achieve their goals, a new Australian study finds. The study, published today in the Australian Journal of Psychology set out to examine the barriers there were to employment for people with psychosis. What is Psychosis? … Read More
Robert Hickson • Dec 07, 2015 •
A sure sign of when to be skeptical of futurists’ (or journalists’) predictions is if the title conforms to the “Why x is the future of y” narrative. That’s just future schlock. (As in “cheap or inferior goods or material”). Take, for example, 3D printing is the future of manufacturing, Why lab-grown meat is the future of food … Read More
Aimee Whitcroft • Sep 28, 2012 •
Workers! Throw off your shackles! Be not afraid to be seen by your boss cooing over Cute Overload! Hiroshi Nittono and colleagues, of Hiroshima University in Japan, have shown something most intriguing: that looking at ‘kawaii’ or cute images of baby animals improves focus and careful behaviour. It is, perhaps, not surprising that the research [...] … Read More
Robert Hickson • Feb 07, 2012 •
Futurist Thomas Frey recently blogged about a talk he gave at a TEDx event — claiming 2 billion jobs will disappear by 2030. He notes his purpose wasn’t to make the future seem bleak, but to highlight how technologies are changing the nature of work. He looks at five ‘industries’ to illustrate the types of jobs that may … Read More
Robert Hickson • Oct 17, 2011 •
If you are keeping up with your futures’ reading then you’ll know about the plethora of trends and drivers that are shaping, or could shape, our future — continuing globalization, population growth or stagnation (depending where you live), multilateralism, paying down debt, urbanisation, aging western populations, obesity, rising economic inequalities, energy crises, climate change, technological convergences, economic growth across Asia, … Read More